Investments rebound key to 6% growth in ’27
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HE Philippine economy may recover and grow by 6 percent in 2027 but this pace would rely on the rebound of public and private investments into the country, according to Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) Country Director for Philippines. Asked when the Philippine economy may post a 6-percent GDP growth, ADB Country Director For Philippines Andrew Jeffries said: “Hopefully by 2027.” “But return to high investment, public and private, I think would be, to me, the key driver. Because the other things seem to be going pretty well,” the ADB official told
HISTORY, SERVED Alex Eala serves during her round-of-32 match against Russian Alina
Charaeva as the Philippines hosts its first-ever WTA 125 tournament at the Rizal Memorial Tennis Center. The No. 2 seed is competing in her first home Women’s Tennis Association event, facing an opponent who defeated her in straight sets in 2020, as local fans witness a milestone moment for Philippine tennis. NONIE REYES
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reporters on the sidelines of the 2026 Annual Reception for the Banking Community held in Manila on Friday. For 2026, he said the Philippine economy will experience “a slower quarter one, and maybe a little better quarter two, and then maybe a little better quarter three and a good quarter four. So it’s recovering to a good, faster rate. But the fullyear figure would be a little lower. But then that would set up the stage for a really good 2027.” Jeffries emphasized that “The infrastructure investment and some of the private sector investment that will be the driver of
whether it’s a mediocre growth or if it’s, you know, higher.” He explained that when the multilateral lender revised the growth targets for the Philippines in December 2025, the main variable in setting the growth expectation for 2026 was “how fast is the public investment recovery.” “And we were thinking maybe in two quarters, it’ll start reviving,” said Jeffries, adding, “I’ve seen it in the media and government announcements that they’re really trying to revive it quickly. So that would be a positive thing for the full year-on-year growth.” In its Asian Development Out-
look report published in December 2025, the ADB slashed its growth projection for the Philippines to 5 percent for 2025 from its 5.6 percent forecast in September 2025. For this year, ADB also revised downward its growth projection for the Philippines to 5.3 percent from its previous 5.7 percent forecast. The multilateral lender said its revision of its growth forecasts for the Philippines reflects “reduced public infrastructure spending.” “GDP growth slowed to 4 percent in the third quarter, averaging 5 percent for the year up to See “Growth,” A2
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PHL LIKELY GREW JUST 5.1% IN ’25–THINK TANK www.businessmirror.com.ph
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Tuesday, January 27, 2026 Vol. 21 No. 107
P25.00 nationwide | 2 sections 22 pages | 7 DAYS A WEEK
By Andrea E. San Juan @andreasanjuan
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ONCERNS around governance issues linked to flood control projects may have dampened business confidence toward year-end, with the Philippine economy likely capping 2025 off with a 5.1-percent pace, still short of the government’s target band, according to Moody’s Analytics.
In its economic view for Asia Pacific, Moody’s Analytics said the Philippine economy likely expanded 5.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025, bringing the full-year growth rate to 5.1 percent. This is below the government’s 5.5 to 6.5 percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth target for 2025. However, it is worth noting that the 5.3-percent growth projection of the think tank for the Philippines in the last three months of 2025 is slightly quicker than the 5.2-percent GDP growth in the same period in 2024. Moody’s fourth-quarter GDP projection is also faster than the 4 percent GDP posted by the Philippine economy in the third quarter of 2025. Moody’s Analytics economist Sarah Tan explained to the BusinessMirror that the growth rate of the Philippine economy in the last quarter of 2025 could be attributed to a combination of external and domestic demand factors. “Stronger global demand for electronics likely provided a lift to exports late in the year, while softer inflation, a more accommodative monetary stance, and higher remittance inflows compared to last year helped improve credit conditions and underpin household spending,” Tan told the BusinessMirror in an e-mail. That said, Tan noted that activity was partly offset by weather-related disruptions, which weighed on agriculture and infrastructure, and by softer investment sentiment. “Concerns around governance issues linked to flood control projects may have dampened business confidence toward year-end,” she also told this newspaper. See “PHL,” A2
FAST TRACK TO THE NORTH A large stretch of the Metro Rail Transit Line 7 (MRT-7), covering 12 stations from North Avenue to San Jose del Monte, Bulacan, is targeted to begin full operations by the second quarter of 2027, a development expected to significantly ease congestion along Commonwealth Avenue and improve daily commutes for northern Metro Manila and Bulacan residents. Transportation Acting Secretary Giovanni Lopez is confident the segment will be ready to serve the commuting public within the target timeline. The stations in this stretch are North Avenue, Quezon Memorial Circle, University Avenue, Tandang Sora, Don Antonio, Batasan, Manggahan, Doña Carmen, Regalado, Mindanao Avenue, Quirino, Sacred Heart, Tala, and San Jose del Monte. In photo: A bird’s-eye view shows the MRT-7 Batasan-Commonwealth Station nearing completion on Monday, January 26, 2026. NONOY LACZA
WHY PHL TOURISM STILL LAGS DESPITE GLOBAL ACCOLADES By Ma. Stella F. Arnaldo Special to the BusinessMirror
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ITH the global recognition the Philippines and its various destinations have been receiving, it only managed to attract 5.9 million in inbound tourists last year. According to Associate Economist Zhao (Bella) Guo of ABNAMRO, “These accolades reaffirm the Philippines’s standing as one of Asia’s premier destinations. But beneath this string of successes lies a deeper question: How can the country convert global recognition of its natural
beauty into a powerful engine for sustainable and inclusive growth—one that benefits communities across the archipelago?” She averred, in the ABN-AMRO’s December 18 blog that the primary way to kick the Philippines out of its tourism rut is to address “long-standing infrastructure gaps that limit accessibility, competitiveness, and visitor experience.” Among the honors received by the Philippines was from the World Travel Awards as Asia’s Leading Beach Destination, Leading Dive Destination, and See “Tourism,” A2
Timing, alignment helping peso
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HE easing up of external pressures alongside “more stable” local fundamentals allowed the Philippine peso to regain some ground as the local currency closed at P58.971 against the dollar on Monday, its best in more than three weeks. Data from the Bankers’ Association of the Philippines (BAP) showed the local currency closed at P58.971 per $1. The peso strengthened by 12 centavos from its previous finish of P59.09 on Friday. However, John Paolo R. Rivera, Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) Senior Research Fellow, told the BusinessMirror that “the move looks more like a short correction rather than a full trend reversal, with the PHP still sensitive to global volatility
and local confidence conditions.” Rivera said the strengthening of the local currency reflects a combination of “improved global USD sentiment and near-term domestic forex support.”
External side
ON the external side, Rivera said markets have eased slightly on US rate expectations, adding that risk appetite has improved, softening the dollar. For his part, Jonathan L. Ravelas, senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., told this newspaper that the peso’s recent strength “is really about timing and alignment.” “The US dollar has softened as markets price in slower growth and earlier Fed cuts, while investor risk appetite toward Asia has
improved,” Ravelas noted. Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. chief economist Michael L. Ricafort said the peso also appreciated recently against the US dollar after the US currency declined against major global currencies. “The US dollar declined vs. the following major Asian/ASEAN currencies: Japanese yen to the lowest in more than 2.5 months amid market speculations about possible market intervention by the US and Japan, vs. the Malaysian ringgit in more than 7 years or since June 2018, and vs. the Singapore dollar in more than 11 years or since 2014,” said Ricafort.
Local fundamentals
DOMESTICALLY, Rivera said the Philippine peso likely benefited See “Peso,” A2
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 59.0430 n JAPAN 0.3818 n UK 80.7177 n HK 7.5736 n CHINA 8.4795 n SINGAPORE 46.4869 n AUSTRALIA 40.8696 n EU 70.0663 n KOREA 0.0409 n SAUDI ARABIA 15.7461 Source: BSP (January 26, 2026)