Amro sees clouded PHL growth outlook
EUROPEAN Commission President Ursula von der Leyen talks during the Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Tuesday, January 20, 2026. AP PHOTO/MARKUS SCHREIBER
By Justine Xyrah Garcia
F
ALTERING investment confidence in the Philippines could weigh on economic momentum through 2025 and into 2026, even as household spending remains resilient, according to the Asean+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (Amro). In its updated regional economic outlook released on Wednesday, Amro cut its growth projection for the Philippines to 5.2 percent in 2025, down from 5.6 percent previously; and to 5.3 percent in 2026, from an earlier 5.5 percent, citing “fairly weak” outturn per-
WORLD » A7
TRUMP’S GREENLAND THREATS SPARK OUTRAGE FROM EU AND TEST LONGTIME NATO ALLIANCE
ROTARY CLUB OF MANILA JOURNALISM AWARDS
2006 National Newspaper of the Year 2011 National Newspaper of the Year 2013 Business Newspaper of the Year 2017 Business Newspaper of the Year 2019 Business Newspaper of the Year 2021 Pro Patria Award PHILIPPINE STATISTICS AUTHORITY 2018 Data Champion
formance during the third quarter of last year. Amro Chief Economist Dong He said during a virtual press briefing that while private consumption has remained firm, investment momentum has faced headwinds. “So private investment, of course, needs to be supported by investor confidence. That public investment had been affected by some of the some of the, for example, flood control controversies,” He said. The Philippine economy expanded by 4 percent in the third quarter of 2025, below the government’s 5.5 to 6.5 percent target,
amid slower spending and dampened investor sentiment following corruption allegations linked to flood control projects. This marked the country’s weakest quarterly growth since the first quarter of 2021, when output shrank by 3.8 percent. Economic managers have since adjusted their expectations. Department of Economy, Planning and Development (DepDev) Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan earlier said the economy likely grew by 4.8 to 5 percent in 2025, while the growth target for this year was narrowed to 5 to 6 percent, citing global trade and investment un-
certainties alongside lingering domestic headwinds. On the price front, Amro lowered its 2025 inflation forecast to 1.7 percent, from 1.8 percent previously, and expects inflation to rise to 3.2 percent in 2026. The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) earlier reported that the country’s average inflation rate stood at 1.7 percent last year, below the government’s 2 to 4 percent target range and the slowest full-year increase in commodity prices in nine years. While acknowledging that the Philippine economy has been See “Amro,” A2
BusinessMirror A broader look at today’s business
EJAP JOURNALISM AWARDS
BUSINESS NEWS SOURCE OF THE YEAR
(2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021) DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
2018 BANTOG MEDIA AWARDS
BIR PREPS FOR RETURN OF LOA, VOWS REFORMS www.businessmirror.com.ph
n
Thursday, January 22, 2026 Vol. 21 No. 102
P25.00 nationwide | 2 sections 24 pages | 7 DAYS A WEEK
Billions lack water as global systems decline —UN report
By Reine Juvierre S. Alberto
T
@reine_alberto
HE Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) is moving closer to resuming its issuance of letters of authority (LOAs) as reforms are under way to improve the system. In a statement on Wednesday, the BIR said it rolled out its five-point priority reform agenda, dubbed BIR DARES, and setting audit reforms as its top priority. DARES stands for Digital and Data Transformation, Audit Reform and Accountability, Revenue Collection and Base Protection, Employee Empowerment and Welfare Promotion, and Service Excellence and Stakeholder Engagement. “BIR DARES reflects what we are already grappling with on the ground,” Internal Revenue Commissioner Charlito Martin R. Mendoza said. “These are not abstract priorities. These are the real challenges we face, and these are the reforms we are choosing to confront.” Mendoza said audit reform is an “urgent” priority under BIR DARES, as trust in tax administration is shaped by how audits are conducted and how assessments are made. The BIR halted in November its issuance of LOAs after business groups raised concerns over audit practices and the conduct of some revenue officers. The pause allowed the agency to reassess its audit framework and address weaknesses in controls and oversight, Mendoza said. As such, the BIR created a Technical Working Group Review Committee on Assessment Integrity and Audit Reform, which has been reviewing audit procedures and systems and drafting new rules to govern the resumption of audits. Mendoza said the committee is now in the final stages of completing the policy issuances that will accompany the lifting of the suspension. When audits resume, taxpayers can expect a public verification tool for Letters of Authority through the BIR website’s chatbot, a policy limiting audits to one LOA per taxpayer per year and the introduction of a “revalida” system, under which auditors will be subject to review to strengthen internal accountability. Moreover, the BIR is moving toward a digitized and risk-based audit system, using data analytics to identify high-risk cases and reduce the discretion of individual examiners. Mendoza said the approach will improve monitoring, minimize abuse and make audit outcomes more defensible. See “LOA,” A2
By Justine Xyrah Garcia
B
SEAMS LIKE GROWTH A saleslady arranges bolts of fabric at a textile market in Las Piñas City, as the Philippines enters its first free trade agreement in the Middle East through the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with the United Arab Emirates, which provides preferential tariff treatment and improved market access for a range of goods, including textile and apparel products. NONIE REYES
‘PHL CAN TURN THE TIDE, WITH ASEAN CHAIRSHIP, AMID WOES’
A
LTHOUGH its economic growth faces domestic headwinds, the Philippines could turn the tide by shaping regional economic and geopolitical agendas, deepening trade ties and pushing digitalization as it chairs Asean 2026, according to Maybank. During the Philippine Macro and Market Outlook 2026, Maybank Investment Banking Group Economist Azril Rosli said the Philippines might benefit from its Asean chairship this year, as Maybank projects the economy to grow below 5 percent. Maybank estimated the Philippine economy to grow by 4.9 percent in 2026, slightly faster than last year’s 4.8 percent, even as cuts in flood control spending and broader budget consolidation at
the Department of Public Works and Highways derail the government’s medium-term economic targets. The impact of the flood control scandal is unlikely to have a lasting impact on the economy, Rosli said, but stressed that the outcome will depend on how proactively the government addresses the issue. Still, the Philippines has strong institutional processes and impeachment proceedings that follow a clear constitutional framework, which helps contain uncertainty and prevent policy disruption, Rosli added. Investor sentiment is also expected to remain anchored on fundamentals rather than short-term political noise, Rosli noted, as policy continuity re-
mains intact. Against this backdrop, he said the Philippines can leverage on its Asean chairmanship to strengthen the region’s economic resilience and global competitiveness by championing digitalization, integrating micro, small and medium enterprises and promoting inclusive growth. “The 2026 chairmanship for the Philippines represent both a regional leadership test and an opportunity to reinvigorate Asean’s relevance on issues where consensus has been difficult,” Rosli said, particularly in the code of conduct in other geopolitical matters, regional diplomacy and balancing trade tensions with external partners. Maybank Securities Philippines Head of Equity Research Kervin
Sisayan added that the country’s Asean chairmanship comes amid geopolitical risks in the West Philippine Sea, the United States and Europe, as well as other parts of the world. Sisayan said a 5-percent economic growth for the Philippines remains “achievable” this year, as long as domestic demand remains robust. “It’s not out of reach, especially given the government’s renewed push under its catch-up plans, as well as recently outlined the big bold reforms,” Rosli added. However, Rosli said achieving the upper end of the target range, at 6 percent, will require swift and effective execution rather than just policy announcements. The government’s “big, bold See “Chairship,” A16
ILLIONS of people worldwide remain water-insecure as water systems in many regions continue to deteriorate due to overuse and longterm ecological damage, according to a new report released by the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health (UNU-INWEH) on Wednesday. The report said nearly threequarters of the global population live in countries classified as water-insecure or critically water-insecure. Around 2.2 billion people still lack access to safely managed drinking water, while 3.5 billion remain without adequate sanitation. Separately, at least 4 billion people experience severe water scarcity for part of the year, including in countries traditionally considered water-rich. The UN said these indicators reflect what it described as “global water bankruptcy,” a condition driven not only by physical scarcity but by sustained overextraction and irreversible damage to rivers, lakes, aquifers, wetlands, and glaciers that limits recovery even during periods of normal rainfall. UNU-INWEH Director Kaveh Madani said the long-standing description of a “global water crisis” no longer reflects reality. “For decades, scientists, media, and policymakers have warned about a global water crisis. The word crisis suggests something temporary, a shock, an emergency followed by recovery. What we document in this report is a different reality,” Madani said during a press briefing. “Emerging in many places, what we see is a persistent failure state where water systems can no longer realistically return to their historical baselines.” The report pointed to the rapid depletion of natural water buffers that once absorbed shocks from droughts and climate variability. UN said over half of the world’s large lakes have declined since the early 1990s, while about 35 percent of natural wetlands have been lost since the 1970s—an See “Water,” A12
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 59.4770 n JAPAN 0.3761 n UK 79.9252 n HK 7.6264 n CHINA 8.5458 n SINGAPORE 46.3433 n AUSTRALIA 40.0578 n EU 69.7368 n KOREA 0.0401 n SAUDI ARABIA 15.8610 Source: BSP (January 21, 2026)