BMI keeps 5.2% PHL growth forecast in 2026 By Justine Xyrah Garcia
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N expected rebound in investment is set to support the Philippines’s economic growth in 2026, even as last year’s weak performance weighed on momentum. BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, kept its 5.2-percent growth forecast for the economy this year. In its latest report, BMI said fixed capital formation is projected to contribute 1.1 percentage points to growth in 2026, reversing a 0.5-percentage point drag in 2025, as public capital expenditure catches up after last year’s
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PAKISTAN SAYS IT HAS KILLED 145 ‘INDIAN-BACKED TERRORISTS’ IN BALOCHISTAN AFTER DEADLY ATTACKS
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2006 National Newspaper of the Year 2011 National Newspaper of the Year 2013 Business Newspaper of the Year 2017 Business Newspaper of the Year 2019 Business Newspaper of the Year 2021 Pro Patria Award PHILIPPINE STATISTICS AUTHORITY 2018 Data Champion
underspending. “Our best guess for now is that the government will make up for the underspending of the capital budget in H2 2026, with the low base flattering [gross domestic product] growth in H2,” BMI noted. Economic growth slowed to 3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025, pulling full-year GDP growth down to 4.4 percent, with investment emerging as a drag on output amid delays in project approvals and disbursements. BMI said the weaker outturn last year has lowered the base for growth in 2026, which could me-
chanically lift headline expansion even as underlying conditions remain uneven. Beyond investment, private consumption is projected to contribute 3.5 percentage points to growth in 2026, supported by easing monetary conditions and a recovery from weather-related disruptions in the second half of last year. BMI also forecast the peso to weaken by 1.8 percent year on year, averaging around P58.50 per dollar in 2026, citing a narrow interest rate differential between the Philippines and the United States and weak foreign direct in-
vestment inflows. A weaker peso, it said, could lift remittances and support domestic consumption. However, BMI cautioned that continued delays in public spending could still weigh on the outlook if investment fails to gain traction as expected. The research firm said visibility on the timing of a pickup in infrastructure spending remains limited, noting that it has yet to see clear indications on when delayed projects will resume amid the ongoing investigations. “Should there be continued See “Growth,” A2
BusinessMirror A broader look at today’s business
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OUTLOOK ‘DARKER’ IN ’26 ON TRADE, TRUST ISSUES www.businessmirror.com.ph
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Tuesday, February 3, 2026 Vol. 21 No. 114
P25.00 nationwide | 2 sections 22 pages | 7 DAYS A WEEK
By Andrea E. San Juan
THINK tank sees the Philippines having a darker economic outlook in 2026 as trust in policy execution, restoring momentum in government spending and consumer confidence, may take some time to rebuild. “The outlook is darker in 2026,” Moody’s Analytics commented on the Philippine context in its Eco-
nomic View for Asia Pacific. “A deteriorating global trade enSee “Darker,” A2
CYBERCRIME EXPERTS: LOVE SCAMMERS USING A.I. MORE By Lorenz S. Marasigan
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CAM WATCH Pilipinas and the Cybercrime Investigation and Coordinating Center (CICC) warned Filipinos on Monday that love scammers are now increasingly using artificial intelligence (AI) to manipulate victims. The two organizations launched “UnmatchPH 2026: ‘Umiwas sa AI, AI-AI Feb-Ibig’” to expose how AI has escalated the scale and sophistication of romance scams targeting Fili-
pinos on dating platforms and social media. “Artificial intelligence allows scammers to sustain emotional manipulation through fake identities, automated conversations, and staged interactions, making love scams more organized, more convincing, and more dangerous,” CICC Acting Executive Director Renato Paraiso said. Paraiso warned that these schemes are “no longer isolated incidents but coordinated operations See “Scammers,” A2
NAVIGATING RECOVERY Boatman Jason Salvador resumes his daily route along a tributary of the Cagayan River in Maddela, Quirino, a year after twin typhoons severely damaged the province’s tourism facilities. Despite being promoted as a regional ecotourism hub, Quirino remains highly vulnerable to flooding, a risk exacerbated by watershed denudation and environmental degradation. JOEL C.PAREDES
‘Faster growth in early ’26 amid Dec surprises’ By Bless Aubrey Ogerio
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GALLOPING INTO PROSPERITY An all-out celebration of art and tradition takes
center stage at SM City Santa Rosa as the breathtaking “Galloping into Prosperity” Chinese New Year centerpiece transforms the mall into a vibrant cultural spectacle. Featuring towering cherry blossom trees, illuminated art boxes, festive lanterns, and striking horse sculptures symbolizing strength, progress, and abundance, the installation marks the 53rd Painting Exhibit of Chan Lim, Family of Artists and Students, welcoming the Year of the Horse with color, creativity, and auspicious beginnings. The exhibit is open until March 1, 2026, inviting mallgoers to experience a richly immersive celebration of culture and artistry at SM City Santa Rosa. SM SUPERMALLS
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OSITIVE economic signals at the end of 2025 caught analysts off guard, but a strong rebound is expected in the first quarter of 2026, according to a think tank. The latest University of Asia and Pacific’s (UA&P) Market Call report projected gross domestic product (GDP) growth to exceed 5 percent in the first quarter of 2026 and sustain this pace for the full year. “The 2026 outlook, particularly Q1, is positive as NG [national government] has advanced a P1.6T budget release to local governments,” the report said. However, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported GDP
growth of 3 percent in the fourth quarter, down from 5.3 percent a year earlier. Full-year growth fell to 4.4 percent, below the 5.7 percent recorded in 2024 and short of the Asian Development Bank’s 5 percent and World Bank’s 5.1-percent forecasts. UA&P economists had anticipated a modest pick-up to 4.6 percent in Q4, citing improved business sentiment, partial employment recovery in November, and low inflation supporting holiday spending. “But the actual print came in lower,” it said. Infrastructure spending remains a limiting factor, with the think tank noting that high interest rates continue to restrain private construction. The national government spend-
ing on current and capital outlays eased to a 12.2-percent year-on-year decline in November from 16 percent in October amid tighter scrutiny of public infrastructure projects. Still, government officials have signaled renewed efforts to boost growth. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. met with his economic team on Friday to accelerate infrastructure and digitalization initiatives. Regarding inflation, UA&P projected January’s year-on-year inflation at 1.2 percent, following a 1.7 percent full-year rate in 2025, below the government’s 2 to 4 percent target range. The Department of Economic Planning and Development (DepDev) described 2026 as a “rally point” for the government to meet the Philippine Development Plan
(PDP) 2023–2028 goals. Moreover, the think tank also expects more firms to prepare for bond issuances by February. “ROPs spreads over US Treasuries will likely increase due to the country’s weakened GDP growth,” it said. Also, for them, low inflation and weak growth may influence monetary policy. It said that the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) could reduce rates by at least 25 basis points in its February meeting, despite the US Federal Reserve pausing rate cuts. “Thus, 10-year bond yield will likely fall below 6 percent in February, although shorter-dated papers may decline less since they have dropped much faster than longterm T-bonds in the first weeks of January.”
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 58.9540 n JAPAN 0.3805 n UK 80.6903 n HK 7.5457 n CHINA 8.4745 n SINGAPORE 46.3876 n AUSTRALIA 40.9730 n EU 69.8782 n KOREA 0.0407 n SAUDI ARABIA 15.7186 Source: BSP (February 2, 2026)