International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET)
e-ISSN: 2395 -0056
Volume: 04 Issue: 03 | Mar -2017
p-ISSN: 2395-0072
www.irjet.net
Assessment of Risk in Construction Projects by Modified Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process C. Sadhana1, S. Shanmugapriya2 1Student
M.E.(CEM), Civil Engineering Department, Coimbatore Institute of Technology/Anna University, Coimbatore, Tamilnadu, India 2Assistant Professor, Civil Engineering Department, Coimbatore Institute of Technology/Anna University, Coimbatore, Tamilnadu, India ---------------------------------------------------------------------***---------------------------------------------------------------------
Abstract - Construction industry has significantly changed
On the other hand, the severe competition endured by the construction organizations and the margin of profit set by organization has always acted as factors to seek better opportunities not only for organization growth but also its bare survival within the industry, where risks creeps into the projects. Hence, risks play a significant role in decision making and may affect the performance of a project. Several studies and researches were conducted to assess risk particularly related to construction projects. Construction risk analysis, especially at the early stages of the project, is difficult and cumbersome because the nature of risk is usually affected by numerous factors including human error and the information available.
over the past years and it is vulnerably subjected to risks because the construction projects are complex and dynamic in nature. So, a comprehensive procedure for risk assessment of construction projects is needed. This paper offers a risk assessment methodology that acts as a decision support tool, directed for the Commercial Construction projects. By the study of the risk registers of commercial construction projects, key risk factors category and their attributes which affects the project are identified based on the project objectives. The main objective of this study is to provide a risk assessment tool using the Modified Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process(MFAHP) in order to overcome the risks. Risk factors are identified by the study of risk registers of various projects collected from projects managers of a globalized organization. The importance of risk assessment and tool is elaborated with the key risk factors identified.
Due to the great uncertainty involved, in many circumstances of construction projects, it makes it extremely difficult to assess the risks associated with a project. In record of construction, industries are very poor in terms of handling risks, which results in the failure of projects by not adhering to the planned time schedules, targets of budget and sometimes even the scope of work. Many risk assessment techniques currently used in the construction industry such as Event Tree Analysis, Monte Carlo Analysis, Fault Tree Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis, Programme Evaluation and Review Technique are mature [2]. High quality data required for these techniques are difficult to obtain, so a new method development is essential to handle risks. Therefore, analytical methods that rely on historical information and the experiences of experts and organization will be easier and comfortable to assess the risk and so, these methods reduce the difficulty of data collection by using the already available data.
Key Words: Construction Projects, Risk assessment, Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process, Risk Factors, Risk Index
1.INTRODUCTION In construction industry, intensive research has been done in the area of project risk management because construction projects are very complex, where uncertainty comes from various sources. The complex and strategic nature of construction projects makes construction industry a risky business. The construction industry is often considered as a risky business due to its dynamic and strategic nature. In its path of advancement, the industry has to overcome a number of challenges and risks. Unfortunately, the construction industry has a poor reputation in risk analysis when compared to other industries. Risk is a multi-facet concept and Project risk management is the processes concerned with identifying, analysing, and responding to project risk [19]. Risk in construction can be handled by managing, minimizing, sharing, transferring or accepting them. Moreover, in the construction projects, it witnesses the involvement of various parties throughout lifecycle of project; each of which carryout different perspective.
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In literature, several classifications were proposed for different construction risk factors and various risk breakdown structures are available, some factors are found in more than one group of classification and overlaps are identified between the risk breakdown structures. Usually, following the identification of the risk factors a multicriteria decision making method (MCDM) is used to assess the level of risk according to the predetermined objectives [5]. The analytic hierarchy process, and simple multi attribute rating techniques are examples of mathematical tools that are related to risk assessment in international construction. With regard to MCDM techniques; even with all numerous researches that provide models for risk assessment there is
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