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Global Cooling Bryan Leyland November 4, 2017 24 Mar 16: The El Nino event has ended and temperatures will drop rapidly over the next 6 months. 2 July 16: Temperatures dropped as predicted in March and will continue to drop for the next four months or so. As the drop is rapid, it now seems to be unlikely that 2016 will be the hottest year since satellite records began. (In fact, it was – by a miserable 0.02°. At that rate, the world will be something like 0.1° warmer by the end of the century.) 11 April 17: Temperatures continued to drop until the end of 2016. It appears likely that they will stabilise or drop slowly over the next few months. It is quite remarkable that the climate models failed to predict the El Niño and the timing and magnitude of the La Nina. In a peer reviewed paper entitled “Influence of the Southern Oscillation on Tropospheric Temperature” published in 2009, Maclean, de Freitas and Carter proposed that global temperatures followed the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) with a lag of between six and eight months. In a Jan 2013 paper the lag was revised to 4 months. Obviously, this meant that global temperatures could be predicted about four months ahead.* In June 2010, I published a graph predicting that temperatures will fall sharply around October 2010. Exactly this happened. Since then I have regularly updated the graphs and predictions. As the Southern oscillation index is still in the “la Nina” region, the cooling did, as predicted, last until late in 2011. In fact, 2011 was a cool year. All the temperature records show this cooling. www.climate4you.com In July 2014, I predicted that the remainder of 2014 would not show significant warming. The prediction was correct. What is remarkable about this is that a retired engineer with access to the Internet has been able to make reasonably accurate predictions of future climate. Yet, to my knowledge, no computer-based climate model nor any mainstream “climate scientist” predicted the 2011 cooling or the timing and magnitude of the 2015/2016 El Niño/La 1