Let's Make Electricity Affordable Again.
Terigi Ciccone, 25 Nov 2025
Introduction: The Urgent Demand for Affordable and Reliable Power in an Electrified Era
Politicians have seized on "affordability" as their new battle cry, rallying voters against skyrocketing electricity bills driven by flawed renewable policies, while promising stable, cost-effective energy solutions. Wind power appears inexpensive by metrics like LCOE (Levelized Cost of Electricity." Yet achieving reliability akin to that of natural gas or coal plants demands extensive overbuilds, backups, and grid expansions—escalating actual system costs by 5-40 times.
Envision these dire outcomes: A hospital operating room blacks out mid-surgery, with failing monitors and life-support systems jeopardizing lives instantly. An AI data center outage halts model training or global services, squandering millions in resources and stalling breakthroughs. Dastardly blackouts during Savanna summers or Wisconsin winters. These aren't hypothetical but tangible threats in our power-reliant world. Below, we examine key challenges we face in the USA and Europe.
a) Germany's Energiewende and High Electricity Prices
Germany's Energiewende, launched in 2010 to transition to renewables while phasing out nuclear power and coal, has contributed to Europe's highest household electricity prices (around €0.43/kWh in 2024). Key issues include massive subsidies via the EEG surcharge, funding renewable expansion, but
burdening consumers with €30-40 billion annually. These shutdowns reduced baseload supply, increasing reliance on volatile renewables and on expensive fossil backups like gas during low-wind/solar periods (Dunkelflaute). Grid upgrades for intermittent sources added costs, while wholesale prices remain low due to merit-order effects. Critics argue this "failure" stems from poor planning, exacerbating volatility and import needs, though defenders note emissions cuts and export strength.
b) California's Renewable Policies and High Electricity Prices
California boasts the highest electricity rates in the contiguous U.S. (over 30¢/kWh in 2025), driven by aggressive renewable energy mandates under policies such as the 100% clean energy goal by 2045. These require massive investments in solar/wind infrastructure, grid modernization, and battery storage to handle intermittency, inflating costs through higher transmission fees and subsidies. Wildfire mitigation, alleged to be climate-driven risks amplified by renewables' grid demands, has added $27 billion in ratepayer burdens since 2019. Reduced nuclear (e.g., Diablo Canyon phaseout) and fossil-fuel reliance have driven up prices during peak periods, while regulations burden utilities like PG&E. While alleged renewables lower long-term wholesale costs, short-term policy failures, such as inadequate baseload planning, have made bills unaffordable for many.
c) High Electricity Costs in New York and New England
New York and New England face some of the highest U.S. electricity prices (averaging 20-30¢/kWh in 2025), driven by heavy reliance on imported natural gas amid pipeline capacity constraints, leading to price spikes during high-demand winters. Surging demand from data centers, EVs, and electrification exacerbates this, alongside inflation, supply chain disruptions,
and costly grid upgrades for renewables. Aging infrastructure, climate-driven heat waves, and regulatory mandates for clean energy add burdens, with costs in the Northeast 70% above the national average. While renewables aim to lower long-term costs, short-term volatility and fossil backups keep rates elevated, outpacing inflation since 2022.
d) Impending Electricity Shortages in New York and New England
New York and New England will face imminent power shortages in 2025-2026, with NYISO warning of increased reliability risks over the next five years due to rising demand from data centers and supply outpacing electrification. NYC could see deficits of 4101,130 MW during summer peaks, while New England's winter outages loom due to overreliance on intermittent wind/solar and plant retirements. Data center growth heightens extreme-weather vulnerabilities, with forced outages totaling 500 MW in summer. Though ISO-NE expects sufficient winter supplies under normal conditions, cold snaps could strain grids, echoing broader U.S. electricity shortages threatening AI and economic growth.
e) Cancelled or Delayed Wind Projects in the US
In 2024-2025, US wind energy projects faced a surge in cancellations and delays, with over $24 billion in clean energy investments scrapped or downsized by September, including 42 major projects—triple the 2024 total. Key examples include Ørsted's halted Ocean Wind 1 and 2 in New Jersey due to inflation and rates, and a Trump administration order pausing a Rhode Island offshore farm, citing grid concerns. Policy uncertainty postelection, rising costs, and supply chain issues drove 16 cancellations early in the year, threatening offshore goals and clean energy targets amid AI-driven demand.
f) Cancelled or Delayed Wind Projects in the EU
Europe's wind sector stalled in 2024-2025, with installations dropping to 16.4 GW in 2024—below targets—and only 6.8 GW added in H1 2025, hampered by grid bottlenecks, permitting delays, and plunging power purchase agreement (PPA) prices. Offshore additions fell 31% in 2024, with Sweden cancelling 13 projects over Russian security threats. US policy shifts under Trump impacted European firms like Ørsted, delaying crossAtlantic ventures. Broader issues include supply chain woes and economic headwinds, which risk energy security and competitiveness despite forecasts of 187 GW by 2030.
g) Wind Energy Outlook for 2026 in the USA
The U.S. wind sector faces headwinds in 2026 due to policy shifts under the Trump administration, including subsidy cuts and regulatory obstacles, leading Wood Mackenzie to slash its fiveyear outlook by 40%. Despite this, Deloitte anticipates strategic collaborations, with 76% of executives planning investments amid rising demand. EIA projects 16.5 GW of new wind capacity by the end of 2026, though additions may decrease by 40% over five years. Key projects like offshore farms are set to start, but supply chain issues and flat manufacturing (e.g., blades at 4 GW) persist, prioritizing resilience over rapid growth.
h) Wind Energy Outlook for 2026 in the EU
Europe's wind outlook for 2026 is touted as “robust,” with WindEurope forecasting 187 GW of new capacity by 2030, including 140 GW in the EU-27 at 23 GW annually to meet decarbonization goals. IEA predicts renewables, led by wind, will become the top global power source by 2026, supported by rising electricity demand (3.7% growth). ENTSO-E highlights increasing wind/solar for winter preparedness, with projects like Baltic Power
(1.14 GW by 2026) advancing. Challenges include permitting delays, but policy focuses on energy security, which drives steady installations toward 344 GW EU total by 2030.
Summary: A Bright Future from the Resurgence of Nuclear
The US nuclear industry is resurging amid AI-driven energy demand, with the restart of mothballed plants leading the charge. Three Mile Island Unit 1 is set to reopen by 2028, backed by a $1B loan and a Microsoft deal for carbon-free power. Other reactivations include Palisades (2025) and Duane Arnold, with discussions for 15-30 more from the 39 decommissioned reactors, potentially adding 7 GW by decade's end through restarts and uprates. Meanwhile, SMR (Small Modular Reactors) investment is booming by 152% in 2025, fueling projects like Amazon's Cascade (5 GW by 2039) and Army microreactors by 2028, yielding gridscale results by 2030-2035. This nuclear revival promises reliable, affordable, and abundant clean energy before the end of the decade.
Sources and Reference:
[1] The Well Hidden and Distorted Costs of Renewables: A Comprehensive Comparison of Wind Power and Combined Cycle Gas Turbine Plant, https://www.allaboutenergy.net/wind-andsolar?view=article&id=4524:usa-the-well-hidden-and-distorted-costs-ofrenewables-a-comprehensive-comparison-of-wind-poser-an-combined-cyclegas-turbine-plants&catid=238.
[2] Nov 25, 2025, Discussion with Grok 4.1. https://grok.com/share/c2hhcmQtMg_f52ef8cb-200e-4a42-aba06f4cfb70a070.