Who is Climate ComicalAli?
Erik Bye
November 26, 2025
At the moment, this must be: The General Secretary of the UN,Antonio Guterres.
His most recent serious statement was:
“The period of global warming is over; now the Earth is burning.”
The key question is: Where?
Just before COP28,Antonio Guterres warned the world about heading towards a “climate hell”. The most alarming rhetoric comes from those emphasizing a climate crisis.
The same question remains: Where?
The leader of IPCC, Jim Skea, is urging the world to remain calm, particularly those who believe in Doomsday events: https://www.dw.com/en/climate-change-do-not-overstate-15-degrees-threat/a-66386523
And what is the reality about the climate just now?
Since the Paris agreement in 2016, the temperature goal is “preferably” below +1.5˚C since the pre-industrial time (1850).
This should be achieved by reducing fossil CO2 emissions. The reduction is compared to the emission in 1990 for each separate country that is a member of the UN.
However, there is a major drawback to this plan: more than 100 UN member countries are allowed to increase their emissions of fossil CO2 until 2030. This permission is due to the need for more energy among these countries. One of them is China, the country with the highest emissions in the world, around 10 GT/year. China will increase emissions by 1.2 GT, mainly through more coal production.
The actual amount of reduction of CO2 per year is registered as the amount reported by each member state. But, despite climate measures supposed to reduce the atmospheric CO2 level, the CO2 level in the atmosphere is expected to increase by 1.1% in 2025. In addition, the CO2 level measured at Mauna Loa is increasing as normal, i.e. “as every year, James”. The increase is quadratic, following this equation:
Y = 0.0136 • X2 - 0.049 • X + 305.5
Y = concentration of CO2 in ppmv
X = T - T0
T = the year of measurement
T0 = the start year for the calculation.
In my calculation, T0 = 1930.
The anticipation of an increase of 1.1% is plausible, considering the last reported values from Mauna Loa:
If many countries are allowed to increase their emission, the recent CO2 pattern is in accordance with this, with no sign of reduction.
The Future?
What might happen in the future? No change until 2050, despite the allowed increase?
If the global population continues to grow, the CO2 level might also increase.
Figure 2. The correlation between the CO2 level and the world population.
An active withdrawal of CO2 from the atmosphere will be compensated by Henry's law, with a similar emission from the ocean.
If the climate changes into a colder phase, with a colder ocean, the absorption of CO2 into the ocean will increase. The CO2 level in the atmosphere might subsequently be reduced. This might even be reported because of the climate measure. However, this might rather be the action of Henry's law, and a natural effect.
Concluding remarks:
This is the test for being the Climate Comical Ali:
Journalist: “How is the climate situation?”
Guterres: “Change course now: Humanity has missed 1.5℃ climate target, says UN head.”
Journalist: “What is the situation for the Green Deal?”
Guterres: “We are seeing a renewables revolution, and the transition will inevitably accelerate, and there will be no way in which humankind will be able to use all the oil and gas already discovered.”
Journalist: “How are the future perspectives?”
Guterres: “Let’s recognise our failure,” he told the Guardian and Amazon-based news organisation Sumaúma. “The truth is that we have failed to avoid overshooting above 1.5°C in the next few years. And that going above 1.5℃ has devastating consequences. Some of these devastating consequences are tipping points, be it in the Amazon, be it in Greenland, or western Antarctica or the coral reefs.”
Considering the questions and answers in 2025, in connection with COP30, Antonio Guterres is highly qualified as “The Climate ComicalAli.”