Estimate to get to 50 percent capacity with nuclear power (John Shanahan)

Greatly simplified estimate of getting to 50% world electric generating capacity from nuclear. John Shanahan April 29, 2017 The world’s total electric generating capacity in 2014 is about 3,500 GW (gigawatts). See here. Nuclear power accounts for nearly 400 GW. If all new nuclear power plants were 1 GW capacity and the world went from 10 % nuclear to 50% nuclear, we would need to build (3,500/2) – 400 = 1,350 new nuclear power plants, NPPs. China is building about 20 plants and taking maybe 5 years to build them. That is the fastest average speed for building 1 GW nuclear power plants so far. For simplicity, we assume that each NPP has a 1 GW capacity. So they are building 20 NPPs / 5 years = 4 NPPs / year. If everything was in place and executed perfectly, and the world rate of building new NPPs was 10 plants per year (for easy math) 1,350 NPPs / 10 NPPs per year, it would take 135 years to come up to 50% nuclear generating capacity. Closer to reality, but still with perfect governments, perfect economies, perfect manufacturing, perfect construction, perfect fuel manufacturing, perfect development of fast neutron uranium fueled reactors with used fuel recycling, perfect development of thorium fueled NPPs, perfect education and training, perfect development of electrical distribution networks, it might take over 200 years to get to 50% electric generating capacity from nuclear. Because many country’s economies and governments are nowhere near ready for nuclear power, it may take over 300 years to get to 50% electric generating capacity. If the Sierra Club, Natural Resources Defense Council, Earth First, etc interfere, it will take more than 300 years. This is based on world capability for building new NPPs and educating and training staff for an additional 10 GW per year or 10 new 1 GW NPPs per year including building used fuel recycling facilities and the necessary capacity of fast neutron uranium reactors and thorium reactors. Conclusion: It is going to take several hundred years to get to 50 % nuclear electric generating capacity. Major restrictions are quality of governments, economies, construction capacities, time it takes to build nuclear power plants, etc. With regard to the hard fought topic of man-made global warming, other man-made climate side effects and man-made rising sea levels, the world should promote open discussion from all sides. Not what has been going on with one-sided research funding and not even allowing open discussions on campuses for fear of losing government funding. We need sound energy planning to make a better world. Page 1