OPINION
Vol 2, Issue 11, June 16-31, 2022
Shinde’s rebellion a wake-up call to all dynasts
By Deepika Bhan The happenings in Maharashtra have thrown up several questions. Is it really a rebellion against a dynasty or a political tussle to get power? Eknath Shinde has made it a fight for “setting the party on the right path”, which clearly means a return to its late supremo Bal Thackeray’s core Hindutva ideology, giving up on the Maha Vikas Agadhi (MVA) alliance and going back to the “old friend”, the BJP. Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray’s dwindling camp and his MVA partners have accused the BJP of engineering the
plot. As the political tussle rages, the country is watching the unravelling saga, which may have a bearing upon the system of dynasts in vogue in a number of political parties. Whatever the result, it may set a new course in the political setup of the country. But the big question is: Can India shake off dynasty politics? Some of India’s most powerful political families include the Gandhis, Tamil Nadu’s Karunanidhi family, Uttar Pradesh’s Yadav family, Bihar’s Lalu Prasad dynasty,
Kashmir’s Muftis and Abdullahs, Punjab’s Badals, Haryana’s Chautalas, Hoodas, Jindals and Bishnois, Jharkhand’s Sorens and Jogis, Scindias in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, the Thackerays and Pawars in Maharashtra, Sangmas in Meghalaya, Karnataka’s Deve Gowda and Yediyurappa families, the NTR and YSR families of Andhra ... The list is very long. Can these political parties exist without the families that have been controlling them? Can we imagine the Congress without the Gandhis, National Conference without the Abdullahs, RJD minus Lalu or the Samajwadi Party without MulayamAkhilesh, TRS without the Raos, etc, etc? In fact, It may be a difficult proposition, perhaps in most of these parties the family without the party seems to be an unacceptable concept. The party without the family nameplate, or the owner family sans the party, both seem like impossible ideas. Except for the Congress, which briefly had two non-Gandhis at the helm, the rest have not deviated from the family ownership pattern. These parties have seen family feuds, some breaking away and joining rivals or forming new parties, but the family’s hold has not been diluted. Non-family leaders keep trudging along, bowing to the dynasty and fading away in the course of time. Challenge to the dynasty The sudden implosion in
First I2U2 projects to promote agriculture, food, green energy in India
New York, July 15 (IANS): The first projects of the I2U2 will be located in India and help with agriculture, food and green energy, according to the joint statement of the four leaders after the group’s launch. Indian Prime Minister NarendraModi along with his Israeli counterpart YairLapid and UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan along with the US President Joe Biden launched the Middle East Quad known as “I2U2” from the initials of the participants. The UAE will invest $2 billion in the agriculture and food project that aims to “maximise crop yields and, in turn, help tackle food insecurity in South Asia and the Middle East,” the statement said on Thursday. Biden claimed that the project that will utilise US and Israeli expertise “has the potential to sustainably increase India’s food yield in the region threefold in just five years”. Gujarat will be the beneficiary of the 300 megawatt wind and solar energy programme and projects like that “have the potential to make India a global hub for alternate supply chains in the renewable energy sector,” the statement added. Speaking through a videolink from India, Modi said, “The I2U2 has established a positive agenda from its very first summit on Thursday.” “We have identified joint projects in several areas and have also made a roadmap to take them forward,” he added. The I2U2 will work in six areas -- water, energy, transport, space, health and food security -- combining the expertise and the resources of the four nations, Modi said. With political and strategic divergences among the four countries,
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the emphasis was on economic and technical cooperation. Unlike in the Indo-Pacific region, where the other Quad of India -- the US, Japan and Australia -- face direct aggressive conduct by China, in the Middle East the challenge for I2U2 is from China’s Belt and Road initiative to extend its power more subtly through predatory lending and trade practices. The US President, who was present in person with Lapid in Jerusalem for the launch, said, “The first two projects that we’re tackling together on food security and clean energy are designed to take on two of the most urgent crises affecting people around the globe: food insecurity.” “Our nations represent some of the most innovative, technologically capable, and entrepreneurial people on the planet,” he added. The mobilisation of the strength of the I2U2 nations can be seen in the two projects in India. UAE will invest $2 billion in the agriculture and food project, and the US and Israeli private sectors will lend their expertise while India will provide the land facilitating farmers’ integration into food parks, the joint statement said. The project will “develop a series of integrated food parks across India that will incorporate state-of-the-art climate-smart technologies to reduce food waste and spoilage, conserve fresh water and employ renewable energy sources,” it added. For the $330 million Gujarat wind solar electricity project that is to be complemented by a battery energy storage system, UAE-based companies are exploring opportunities to serve as “critical knowledge and investment partners,” the statement
said. The US Trade and Development Agency has funded a feasibility study for it and the US and Israel are to work with the UAE and India to highlight private sector opportunities, it added. “Indian companies are keen to participate in this project and contribute to India’s goal of achieving 500 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030,” it said. UAE President said that he wanted to “emphasise the importance of giving priority during the coming time to research and development, healthcare and space”. Among the future projects mentioned is providing vaccines -- something that has been a focus area for the other Quad in the Indo-Pacific. While putting the spotlight on food and energy security, the joint statement laid out an ambitious agenda ranging from infrastructure for better physical connectivity in the region to financing start-ups, with waste treatment in between. The I2U2 statement detailed them: “We intend to mobilise private sector capital and expertise to modernise infrastructure, advance low carbon development pathways for our industries, improve public health and access to vaccines, advance physical connectivity between countries in the Middle East region, jointly create new solutions for waste treatment, explore joint financing opportunities, connect our startups to I2U2 investments, and promote the development of critical emerging and green technologies, all while ensuring near- and longterm food and energy security.”
Maharashtra’s Shiv Sena has stunned political observers. Can an entrenched dynasty be challenged this way? Perhaps Eknath Shinde has shown the way. A ‘courageous’ move that has all the BJP’s backing. Uddhav Thackeray’s Man Friday is now the rebel. Fifty-six years after the party was formed, the Thackerays are on the brink of losing their Sena. It was on June 19, 1966, when Bal Thackeray formed the party that later made Hindutva its core ideology. Ironically, it is in its founding month that the party is wracked by a coup that is based on the allegations that Bal Thackrey’s son Uddhav and grandson Aaditya deviated from the core ideology and went with those whom the founding father had all along opposed. With support for him growing from within the party, Shinde wants to name his faction as Shiv Sena Bal Thackeray. The tussle within the party is heading towards a legal finish, the result may be whatever, but Shinde has shown that dynasties can be challenged. Wake-up call for all dynasts Maharashtra is a wake-up call for all those who believe that political inheritance and dynastic rule can fetch dividends for all time to come. Rebellions can happen and Shinde has shown the way. The Congress has seen the G-23 rise, even though it has failed to
produce results. On the other hand, the dissenting leaders are slowly ebbing away. Kapil Sibal quit the Congress after he was denied a Rajya Sabha ticket, veterans Ghulam Nabi Azad, Anand Sharma, etc. find no major role in the party now. The Congress continues to depend on Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Vadra Gandhi, even as questions are being repeatedly raised on their ability to lead the party to election victories. Those who felt ‘suffocated’ left the party and some of them are doing very well in their new political addresses, notably Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma and the Civil Aviation Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia. But they chose to move out rather than rebel within the party. Dynastic politics is not the hallmark of just the Gandhi family; it is now an integral part of politics in the country. Almost all the states have their own share of parties led by dynasties. In most of the regional dynasty-led parties, voices are raised from time to time, but the rebels just move away to join other parties. The iron grip of the regional satraps on their parties does not allow anyone outside the family to rise. The BJP has been raking up the ‘vices’ of dynasty politics and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been consistently attacking the Gandhis and the regional dynasties. “Democracy in the country will be strengthened only when all political
parties shun dynasty politics and allow the youth of the country to reach the top,” Modi said, terming dynastic politics as a challenge to democracy. Watershed moment Will the Shinde rebellion help rewrite Shiv Sena history? The party saw its first rebellion when Chhagan Bhujbal left the Shiv Sena in 1991, upset that the leadership did not appreciate his work for the party. Bal Thackeray was leading the Sena when Bhujbal broke away with 18 MLAs to support the Congress, which was then in power in Maharashtra. But 12 of the 18 rebels returned to Thackeray’s fold on the same day. Then in 2005, Narayan Rane left the party; in 2006, Uddhav Thackeray’s cousin Raj also left and formed his own political outfit, namely, the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS). Shinde’s rebellion, however, is totally different from the earlier ones. After securing the support of a majority of the MLAs, his sole demand is a “return to Hindutva” and the dissolution of the MVA combine as it is “annihilating” the party. Will Shinde be able to lead his rebellion to its logical end? That’s the million-dollar question today, but his action is a warning to all other dynasts. (Deepika Bhan can be reached at deepika.b@ians.in)
Russia-China ties under stress? By Asad Mirza Recent events in Ukraine and Taiwan are once again testing the Russia-China ties, as neither has commented upon or shown support to each others actions in different theatres of action. Two time-tested allies, though differing ideologically at present but firmly rooted in the same political ideology roots and having faced several crises together, supporting each other at regional and international level through political brinkmanship are facing a new stress. Though each of them deny publicly of supporting each other, yet no one can discount the secret deals which help further cement their ties. To boost the bilateral ties and trade, a new cross-border bridge between Russia and China was inaugurated on June 10 in the Far East in a bid to further boost bilateral trade between traditional Communist friends, besides countering rising US-led sanctions over Taiwan and Ukraine. Kremlin’s representative in the Russian Far East, Yuri Trutnev, described the bridge as carrying a special symbolic meaning in today’s divided world. While Russia’s Transport Minister Vitaly Savelyev said that the bridge would help increase bilateral annual trade between the two countries to more than 1 million tons of goods. Russian authorities claim that the bridge would bring Moscow and Beijing closer together by expanding trade. China’s Vice Premier Hu Chunhua also welcomed the development, saying that Beijing seeks to deepen practical cooperation with Russia in all areas. Russia announced in April it expected commodity flows with China to surge, and trade with Beijing to reach $200 billion by 2024. China is a major purchaser of Russian natural resources and agricultural products. The development comes amid Western criticism of Beijing’s refusal to condemn Moscow’s military operations in Ukraine while also censuring US-led sanctions against Russia and acting arrogantly against Taiwan. China-US Ties It seems as if Chinese tensions with the US are taking a turn for the worse. On June 10, Chinese and US defence ministers held a tense meeting, clashing over Taiwan. Addressing the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin asserted that Washington would do its part to manage tensions with China and prevent conflict. US President Joe Biden declared last month that his country would get involved militarily should China attack Taiwan, although his administration has since claimed that American policy on the issue has not changed. On his part Chinese Defence Minister Wei Fenghe warned Austin that Beijing will “not hesitate to start a war” if Taiwan declares independence. The Chinese minister vowed that Beijing would “smash to smithereens any ‘Taiwan independence’ plot and resolutely uphold the unification of the motherland”, and also “stressed that Taiwan is China’s Taiwan... Using Taiwan to contain China will never prevail”.
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Russia-China Ties The new bridge further underlies the growing strengthening of relations between China and Russia, albeit with some reservations from both sides. So far, China has not given any public expression of support for Putin’s ‘special military operation’. Xi himself has subsequently stated that China is ‘committed to respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries’. Though Russia has asked for military aid from China but no response has been forthcoming at least publicly, so far. Neither does it seem that China wants to risk being involved in trade wars with the West. Chinese companies, particularly those established in the US, appear to be equally circumspect about breaking US sanctions. Putin’s war in Ukraine has highlighted the resilience and also the limitations of Sino-Russian partnership. Far from being an “arc of autocracy”, this could be described as an interests-based relationship between strategically autonomous powers. Also more rhetorical than time and action tested. Foreign policy coordination between China and Russia is limited by their different views of global order. Beijing wants a stable international system, skewed in its favour, whereas Moscow thrives on disorder and uncertainty. Xi Jinping aims to preserve the Sino-Russian partnership while maintaining ties with the West. But Beijing’s balancing act will become harder to sustain as the war continues. The balance of power within the bilateral relationship has tilted sharply towards Beijing. Russia is more reliant on China than ever. The long-term outlook for the relationship is unpromising. At their Beijing summit in February 2022, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin proclaimed a “friendship without limits”. Yet Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, and the Chinese response to it, has exposed the limitations of the Sino-Russian partnership. Far from being an “axis of authoritarians”, as described by western observers, this is a traditional great power relationship centred in strategic calculus. Chinese and Russian interests diverge in key respects, and the war has highlighted contrasting visions of global order and disorder.
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Xi Jinping has attempted to chart a “neutral” course that maintains the partnership with Russia but protects China’s global interests. This balancing act might become harder to sustain if the Ukraine war drags on. Both sides value the partnership as too important to fail. But over time, its strength may erode. As both pursue different global ambitions, the cohesions may become fewer. The relationship will become increasingly unequal and dysfunctional, and would be defined principally by its constraints. China’s regional ambitions Meanwhile, Central Asia has become of increasing strategic importance to China as a result of the RussiaUkraine conflict, which has pinched direct supply chain routes between China and the EU. It is just like how Russia views Ukraine and other former Soviet republics in its immediate neighbourhood. China has invested much in C+C5 alliance, supported by the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in terms of security and trade. The trade aspect also includes the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), which includes Russia as well as C+C5 members Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, while Uzbekistan is an observer nation and expected to join the block soon. Interestingly, China has a Free Trade Agreement with the EAEU but has not yet agreed tariff reductions. When it does, regional China-Central Asian trade will increase significantly. While at its core is the issue of Afghanistan, the C+C5 is intent on becoming an institutionalised regional voice. While the C5 already have their own dialogue arrangements with Russia, which also includes infrastructure developments and trade, the China format allows them some ability to compare as well as cooperate. Given the issues between Russia and the European Union right now, winners will be China and the C5 states. Thus, though for the time being China will continue to support Russia, and may not give-up the ideological common ground militarily but economic factors may impel it to overlook Russian interests in certain matters, as it continues to consolidate its global power and also in the central Asian region guided by its economic goals. (Asad Mirza is a political commentator based in New Delhi. He writes on Muslims, educational, international affairs, interfaith and current affairs)
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