6. 2050 FLOODS

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THE EVOLUTION OF LABOR IN TECTONICS4

A SWAMPING SURGE - FLOODS 2050

With an imminent climate change, what will you do when the first floor of your building is submerged under the sea, in the next thirty years?

-Neha Shenoy

If the ever-increasing population of Mumbai wasn’t already a matter of concern, it definitely will be when a majority of the densely inhabited south and suburban Mumbai will be at risk of coastal flooding by 2050. A new study poses an alarming question- will the financial capital of India withstand the perils of the impending sea level rise? It noted that three times as many people may be affected and displaced as earlier projections estimated.

Coastal communities worldwide have been cautioned to prepare themselves, for much more difficult times in the future than previously anticipated, should the current rate of greenhouse gas emission continue. For vulnerable urban waterfront zones, locations that once made great sense economically now present formidable questions.

How much is at stake? What needs to change? How long do we have?

Such questions are becoming more urgent in coastal cities with the escalating risk of flooding.

To cope with this distressing news, architects not only need to help reduce the carbon footprints with their work, but also prepare construction measures for the inevitable. In this case, it means coming up with solutions that are adept at keeping the population safe and the city unassailable.

In many different parts of the world, stilt houses, urban and rural, have been constructed to protect the inhabitants from floods. Amphibious houses are structures which float off the ground when the waters rush in. However, neither of these seem practically viable in the metropolitan megacity that Mumbai is.

Perhaps sea walls would be an appropriate method of preventing floods in the city; a form of coastal defense constructed to protect shores from the action of tides, waves, or tsunamis, sea walls have several benefits. They form a solid and strong coastal defense, effectively minimizing loss of life at the time of catastrophe and damage to property caused by erosion.

However, the drawbacks are: instead of curbing the tidal wave energy, these structures deflect it to adjacent areas. So, if waves pummel a seawall along one coastal property, their energy will be redirected to neighboring properties. That means, these areas will experience wave energies similar even when in the absence of seawalls.

How far the oceans rise will depend a great deal on how we formulate our line of action in the next few decades. Carbon emissions if restrained and greatly reduced will make a difference between manageable disruption and catastrophic inundation. Till what level the sea can rise by 2050 is known. But before that, everything also depends on how we make plans to avert detrimental environment discharges. Designing and building the necessary infrastructure with a transformation in mind demands investment today, that will save lives and assets in the long run. Whether it be floating houses, cities on stilts, bounded walls, or any other construction technique, it is imperative for us to introspect and deter a potentially significant sea level rise, looming in the future.

Courtesy: Shabbir Raza 65