CHACRDIGEST
SEPTEMBER 30th, 2025
#48
In a month dominated by continuing uncertainty over the conflict in Ukraine and increased evidence of Russian intrigues across Europe, considerable speculation has continued about Vladimir Putin’s apparent resolve to test NATO’s resilience and cohesion. US president Donald Trump’s comments on the conflict have been ambiguous, although his tone has appeared to suggest mounting anger over the failure of his Russian counterpart to commit to some form of negotiated end to the fighting. At the same time, there remains extensive coverage of the situation in the Indo-Pacific and the potential for Chinese military action against Taiwan along with a concurrent need for stronger defence responses around the region. With seemingly worsening insecurity in both the northern and southern hemispheres, what the future holds for the conduct of war and global politics is also a strong theme for discussion.
AUTHOR: Professor Andrew Stewart, Head of Conflict Research
The views expressed in this Digest are not those of the British Army or UK Government. This document cannot be reproduced or used in part or whole without the permission of the CHACR. chacr.org.uk
EUROPE Speaking to the UN General Assembly, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that the advent of artificial intelligence meant the arms race underway was the “most destructive” in human history. Expressing his disappointment in what he said was the weakness of international law and cooperation, he asked the assembled audience of international political leaders if “stopping Russia now is cheaper than wondering who will be the first to create a simple drone carrying a nuclear warhead?”. Zelensky’s challenge followed social media comments made by US President Donald Trump, after he also spoke at the opening of the 80th Session of the UN General Assembly, during which he appeared to once again change his position on the conflict. In what has been seen as some of his strongest language about Russia, he wrote: “[Russia has been] fighting aimlessly for three and a half years a War that should have taken a Real Military Power less than a week to win. This is not distinguishing Russia. In fact, it is very much making them look like ‘a paper tiger’.” He went on to express the view that “Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form … and, who knows, maybe even go further than that!”. With comments to the media which some interpreted as a positive reaffirmation of long-standing NATO Article V commitment and promises of support in response to attacks against fellow member states, there was, however, some scepticism that this might have been further confirmation that the US leader is moving towards complete disengagement from the conflict. The comments did draw a firm response from the official Kremlin spokesperson, who stated: “Russia is by no means a tiger. Russia is traditionally seen as a bear. There is no such thing as paper bears. Russia is a real bear … There is nothing paper about it.” In a highly visible example of NATO’s strengthening posture, Operation Gotland Sentry tested plans to deploy land, sea and air forces in any rapid defence of the strategically vital Swedish island of Gotland. Described by a member of the Swedish Navy as “basically like a huge aircraft carrier in the middle of the Baltic”, it is key to controlling the region’s security. This came at the same time as heightened discussions about apparent continuing Russian hybrid activity across Europe, which has seen incidents affecting several NATO member states. This, in turn, has increased calls for a drone wall to offer some protection to the seven “front-line countries” – Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, Poland, Romania and Bulgaria – most affected (although throughout the month, incidents and disruption of critical infrastructure expanded to include Denmark and Norway). While the Finnish foreign minister later said there was “no major cause for concern”, a debate on how the drone threat can best be countered continues to develop. In the margins of the UN meeting, the US magazine Foreign Affairs interviewed Radek Sikorski, the Polish Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs. In a wide-ranging discussion he referred to the Russian drone incursion into his country’s airspace – “the assault lasted seven hours … it was a firefight, not a mistake” – and suggested that cheaper methods needed to be adopted to tackle any future repeat such as “combat helicopters with Gatling guns” and “turboprops with machine guns on board”. He expressed confidence that US troops would remain in Poland, possibly even increasing in number beyond the current 10,000 strong force. He also confirmed his vocal support for recent German expansion – “as long as Germany is in the EU and NATO, I fear German pacifism more than German rearmament” – and explained in detail his thinking about future developments in Ukraine.
1 // WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND UKRAINE // CHACR DIGEST