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CHACRDIGEST
OCTOBER 31st, 2025
#49
The continuing conflict in the Middle East (with understandable attention given to the ceasefire forced on Israel and Hamas by President Donald Trump) and in Ukraine (but viewed increasingly as part of potentially worsening security conditions across Europe) have very much remained central to discussion and analysis. Interpretation of Russian actions and intentions is a regular theme and various ideas emerge along with observations about what the near future might hold. Equally significant are the efforts to do similar with the United States as the US leadership pursues dynamic domestic and international policies which challenge the status quo and increasingly create doubt and uncertainty about an overall strategy. War remains a constant in the global system and while these conflicts dominate attention, events in Venezuela and Sudan demonstrate that they are by no means the only examples of insecurity that warrant attention.
EUROPE
AUTHOR: Professor Andrew Stewart, Head of Conflict Research
The views expressed in this Digest are not those of the British Army or UK Government. This document cannot be reproduced or used in part or whole without the permission of the CHACR. chacr.org.uk
In an interview with The i Paper, and following evidence given to Parliament’s joint committee on the national security strategy, the chairman of the UK’s National Preparedness Commission has warned about dangers facing Britain. He urged that the country needs to be better prepared, both militarily and across society, for a widespread conflict happening in the next three to four years with lives “being changed or likely to be changed in the foreseeable future”. In a wide-ranging interview, Lord Harris suggested this includes stockpiling three days of emergency supplies to be used in the event of attacks on critical national infrastructure and argued the government’s ‘Prepare’ website should be made more visible with regular advertising campaigns on radio, TV and social media, as well as via lessons for schoolchildren. Referencing recent comments by MI5 chief Sir Ken McCallum that Moscow was “committed to causing havoc and destruction” around the world, Lord Harris also cautioned it may be difficult for the UK to declare at what point this grey-zone activity goes from a ‘normal’ level of noise to NATO having to invoke Article 1 and, compared with many other nations, Britain is ill-prepared across the spectrum of issues which exist on the national risk register.
Recent drone incursions have heightened awareness across Europe of the potential threat posed by Russia. An immediate, but longanticipated, response from the European Union (EU) is the Defence Readiness Roadmap 2030 with plans for a ‘drone wall’. The EU had previously set a list of nine capability priority areas for member states to invest in as a matter of urgency, including ammunition, drone and anti-drone technology. The Commission has also proposed four pan-European flagship projects to be prioritised and, while the Air Defence Shield and a Defence Space Shield are viewed as important, the Eastern Flank Watch, including the European Drone Wall, is the most critical. Although questions remain about how domestic restrictions might impact on involvement by member states, the flank and the drone wall are viewed as the most urgent and the aim is for these to be fully operational by the end of the following year. With the Commission’s defence loan scheme, dubbed SAFE, and the European Defence Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB) announced previously, this roadmap also now provides new targets with member states asked to organise at least 40 percent of defence procurement as joint procurement by the end of 2027, rising to 60 percent by 2030. Continuing with their recent more visible military flexing, Russia’s military are reported to have conducted large scale exercises testing the capabilities of their strategic nuclear forces. Missiles launched included a Yars land-based intercontinental ballistic missile (pictured), a R-29RMU Sineva submarine-launched intercontinental range ballistic missile and multiple cruise missile launches from Tu-95MS strategic bombers. This report notes that, while there are weaknesses in Russia’s conventional forces when compared to those of NATO members, its nuclear forces are considered to have full parity. Of note, the report explains that while the air arm appears weaker as a result of the destruction of Tu-95MS aircraft by Ukrainian drones and a shortfall in funding for replacement and modernisation of Tu-22M3 and Tu-160M aircraft, the current Delta IV class submarines are rapidly being phased out and replaced with significantly larger and more advanced Borei class ships which each carry 16 RSM-56 intercontinental range ballistic missiles with longer ranges and capacities for up to six warheads. Further reports from Russian sources have also claimed a recent test of its nuclear-powered Burevestnik cruise missile (also known to NATO as SSC-X-9 Skyfall) with claims that it flew 8,700 miles. This in turn provoked some anger from President Donald Trump, who called on his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin “to end the war in Ukraine instead of testing missiles”. In a detailed analysis of what is
1 // WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND UKRAINE // CHACR DIGEST