December 2025 INDUSTRIAL POLICY DOSSIER
Industry Report Industrial production and trade in the individual industries
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With growth weak in the middle of the year, the BDI now expects manufacturing output to fall not by one half but by two percent this year. This would be the fourth consecutive downward year for production in the manufacturing sector.
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The industrial recession seems to have bottomed out in the European Union already. We are upwardly adjusting our forecast for the current year from minus one percent to plus one percent. The pharmaceutical, metal and electro industries and other transport equipment have all tangibly expanded production. Motor vehicle manufacturing and chemicals remain in recession.
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In 2025 overall, German goods exports, in nominal terms, are expected to turn around after two years of downturn. Prospects for industrial exports have improved again recently.
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We expect the global trade in goods in 2025 overall to rise by four percent. Goods exports from emerging countries are on track to increase five percent, while exports from advanced economies are heading for an increase of two percent.