Executive Summary
Climate variability exacerbated by climate change is expected to amplify and significantly affect existing patterns of migration. A recent World Bank report (Clement et al. 2021) estimates that slow-onset climate impacts due to climate change could lead up to 216 million people to become internal migrants. In regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa, this would imply additional migration representing more than 4 percent of the total population. With the vast majority of these migrants expected to end up in urban areas, cities must prepare to house and integrate them. Nevertheless, as shown in another World Bank report (Lall et al. 2021), most cities in developing countries are not prepared for efficient and sustainable expansion. Urban plans and planning institutions are often ineffective at coordinating development; urban land markets tend to be dysfunctional; and zoning and restrictive building regulations limit the size of structures, economic density, and ultimately urban efficiency. The impacts of climate change are not some looming threat on the distant horizon—they are happening here and now. This report therefore looks back into the recent past to examine the role that droughts, floods, infrastructure, and other water-related factors have played in determining the movements of people. The analysis relies on empirical methods and big data to examine these relationships. Stepping back and letting the data speak for themselves allows for an evidence-based view of often sensitive and emotive issues. Understanding the triggers of migration and the resulting impacts on well-being and development is critical to finding the appropriate policy response. This report demonstrates that this understanding is especially important in the context of water and migration because there are differences in triggers and important nuances in the impacts of a given adverse “water event” that call for equally different policy responses.
Focus of the Report Migration shapes the lives of those who move and transforms the geographies and economies of their points of departure and destinations alike. Although every migrant has a unique story, the decision to migrate can often be boiled down to two salient questions: Will I be better off in the long run if I choose to migrate? and, Do I have the means to migrate? Many factors will go into determining the answer to those questions. Some of these will be unique to the migrants themselves: their personal situation, their characteristics and those of their families, or the perceived risks and opportunities from staying or leaving. Yet others will be determined at a higher level: what the economic and safety situation is inside the village, province, or country where they live; how laws and institutions restrict or promote relocation; or how a changing natural resource base or climate affects lives and livelihoods.
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