MAIN FACTS
What seemed unlikely has finally happened: President Lula established direct contact with US President Donald Trump, reducing tensions in relations between Brazil and the United States. This rapprochement, which included a meeting at the White House of those responsible for discussing the matter, opens a more favorable horizon for both countries, although there is still a long way to go in bilateral negotiations. At the same time as this good news arrives, the United States is raising the tone in its relations with China, threatening to increase tariffs, which increases global risk and directly affects financial markets and emerging currencies. Added to this scenario is the possibility of a US government shutdown. As a result, the real—which had been fluctuating around R$5.30 per dollar—has returned to near R$5.50. In addition to external factors, there is also a domestic component: Congress allowed a Provisional Measure that would have increased tax revenue to expire. The lack of these resources creates a more pessimistic outlook regarding fiscal adjustment and the trajectory of public debt, further putting pressure on the Brazilian currency. The Brazilian economy continues to weaken, and this trend becomes more evident each month. According to IBGE data, national retail sales grew 0.4% in August year-over-year. However, the main segment—supermarkets—declined 0.5%, indicating a loss of momentum in consumption. When the automotive sector, known as “expanded retail,” is included, the performance is even worse: a 2.1% decline. This trend had already been signaled as a consequence of high interest rates— currently at 15% per year—and higher inflation in the first half of the year. This combination has
made financial life more difficult for families, who have become more dependent on credit. As a result, debt and default rates have reached record levels: in September, 30.5% of families were in default, according to the National Confederation of Commerce.
Industry is also showing signs of weakening. In August, industrial production fell 0.7%, highlighted by a 5% drop in capital goods production, indicating a lower investment volume given the high cost of capital.
Some sectors of the economy have managed to stand out even in this context of slowdown. Tourism, for example, has shown impressive results. According to data from FecomercioSP, the sector generated R$18.7 billion in revenue in August, a 6.3% increase compared to the same month last year—a historic record for the period. Lodging services grew 10.3%, while air transportation grew 9.7%. Another highlight is the information technology sector, which registered a 12.5% increase in August year-over-year. These two segments contributed to the services sector as a whole’s 2.6% expansion in the month.
Despite the challenges, there are more positive signs on the horizon, particularly in price behavior. Inflation rose 0.48% in September and has accumulated 5.17% over the past 12 months, clearly showing a cooling trend. The monthly increase was driven by the end of the temporary bonus on residential electricity bills. Excluding this item, the overall variation would have been close to zero, indicating more contained prices and converging toward the center of the target set by the National Monetary Council.
Softer inflation, combined with a buoyant labor market, could generate real income gains for the
population, creating room for debt repayment and a more consistent recovery in consumption. The unemployment rate reached 5.2% in the quarter ending in August—the lowest level ever recorded in the country—and average real incomes have reached record levels. The downside is that part of these resources is still tied up in high interest payments.
At the next meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), scheduled for early November, the Selic rate is expected to remain at 15% per year. However, the Central Bank may
IMPORTANT DATA:
1
Harvest: The new IBGE projection indicates that the 2025 harvest should reach 342 million tons, representing a 17% increase compared to the previous year. The next release will also present the harvest outlook.
2
signal the beginning of a new cycle of cuts in early 2026, which would have a positive impact on business confidence and morale.
Brazil is projected to maintain growth close to 2% in 2025 and 2026—a positive result given such high interest rates. The current scenario can be compared to “stepping on the accelerator with the handbrake on.” If fiscal adjustment progresses more concretely, the acceleration cycle could occur more quickly. Even so, the 2026 election year poses additional challenges regarding public spending, which could limit the speed of this expansion.
Employment: In August, the General Registry of Employed and Unemployed Persons (CAGED) recorded 48.7 million formal employment contracts, representing an increase of almost 1.5 million compared to the same period last year. This result signals a positive outlook for the payment of the 13th-month salary at the end of this year.
OCTOBER/2025
3
Default: According to data from the Central Bank, in August, 6.8% of household credit balances were overdue for more than 90 days—1.6 percentage points higher than at the beginning of the year and the highest rate since June 2012. This data reinforces the scenario of increased difficulty for families in maintaining control of household finances.
CONFIDENCE INDEXES:
Consumer Confidence (ICC): The index fell 1.5% in September, returning to 110.2 points, also lower than the same period last year, when it reached 123.2 points. Although inflation in the region is milder in this final stretch of the year, high interest rates and the economic slowdown have reduced the optimism of São Paulo residents.
Business Confidence in Commerce (ICEC): In September, the index fell 5.9%, falling from 99.8 points in August to 93.9 points—the lowest level since June 2021. The increased pessimism is associated with the challenging sales scenario, marked by more expensive credit for consumers and rising default rates, factors that have limited consumption capacity.
The ICC and ICEC range from 0 to 200. A score of 100 to 200 is considered optimistic, and a score below 100 is considered pessimistic. Although these indicators are for the city of São Paulo, they reflect the trend seen elsewhere in the country, as the city, Brazil’s largest, accounts for 11% of the country’s GDP.
Consumer Confident Index (ICC) and Comerce Businessman (ICEC)
Consumer Confident Index (ICC) and Comerce Businessman (ICEC)
TRAVEL AND TOURISM
BRAZILIAN TRAVEL ABROAD
We asked Amadeus to conduct a survey on Brazilians’ travel intentions for next summer. For the period from December 1, 2025, to February 28, 2026, international travel by Brazilians shows a +4.7% increase compared to the previous summer, considering the same methodological assumptions regarding duration, exclusion of residents, and reservations made up to October 11, 2025.
This positive performance is driven by markets such as: Colombia (+50.7%), Japan (+37.2%), Dominican Republic (+23.2%), United Arab Emirates (+24.8%), and Mexico (+21.2%).
These destinations are consolidating themselves as new hubs of interest among Brazilian travelers.
Traditional destinations in Europe and North America are showing stability, with highlights including: Portugal (+10.2%), Italy (+11.6%), Spain (+13.5%), and Germany (+8.5%).
DECLINING DESTINATIONS DO NOT DISTURB OUTLOOK
Even with small, isolated declines, such as in the United States (-9%) and Argentina (-8.9%), the overall outlook reflects a solid and diversified recovery, highlighting Brazilians’ growing willingness to explore new international destinations during the summer of 2025/2026.
MAIN TRAVEL ORIGINS AND LENGTH OF STAYS
Among Brazilian originators, São Paulo (51.5%) and Rio de Janeiro (11.9%) continue to lead in total international travel volume, together accounting for almost two-thirds of all bookings.
However, emerging markets with accelerated growth stand out, such as:
Rio Grande do Sul (+54.9%), Amazonas (+82.4%),
Pará (+62.6%) and Rio Grande do Norte (+18.5%).
Significant growth was also observed in Pernambuco (+31.6%), Bahia (+11%), and Espírito Santo (+12.9%), demonstrating an increasingly decentralized participation of Brazilian outbound tourism. Regarding the length of stays abroad, Brazilians demonstrated a preference for longer trips: the largest volume was concentrated in stays between 6 and 8 nights (25%) and 9 to 13 nights (24%), both with growth exceeding +8% and +3.5%, respectively, compared to the same previous period. Trips of 3 to 5 nights also increased, while very short trips or trips of more than 22 nights remained stable. This behavior reinforces a clear trend toward planned trips and longer stays, typical of the summer vacation period, with a balanced distribution between leisure, family visits, and experiential tourism.
WHERE ARE CVC VIAGENS PASSENGERS GOING?
We also asked CVC Viagens has compiled a ranking of its customers’ most sought-after destinations for next summer. Porto de Galinhas, in Pernambuco, and Orlando, Florida, are the best-selling CVC Summer destinations. Check them out below:
Top 10 domestic destinations for CVC Summer
1. Porto de Galinhas (PE)
2. Maceió
3. Porto Seguro (BA)
4. Gramado (RS)
5. João Pessoa
6. Natal
7. Fortaleza
8. Foz do Iguaçu (PR)
9. Rio de Janeiro
10. Balneário Camboriú (SC)
Top 10 international destinations for CVC Summer
1. Orlando, Florida (USA)
2. Punta Cana, Dominican Republic
3. Portugal
4. Italy
5. Buenos Aires, Argentina
6. Chile
7. Cancun, Mexico
8. France
9. Miami, Florida
10. Spain
And at Decolar (Despegar), Latin America’s largest OTA, the most searched destinations for the summer are:
Top 10 domestic destinations for Summer 25/26 on Decolar
1. Rio de Janeiro
2. Maceió
3. Porto de Galinhas (PE)
4. Porto Seguro (BA)
5. Natal
6. Florianópolis
7. Imbassaí (BA)
8. Foz do Iguaçu (PR)
9. Búzios (RJ)
10. Maragogi (AL)
Top 10 international destinations for Summer 25/26 on Decolar
1. Cancun, Mexico
2. Punta Cana, Dominican Republic
3. Orlando, Florida (USA)
4. Riviera Maya, Mexico
5. New York, USA
6. Puerto Vallarta, Mexico
7. Playa del Carmen, Mexico
8. Acapulco, Mexico
9. San Andrés, Colombia
10. Cartagena, Colombia
INBOUND IN THE SUMMER
Between December 1, 2025, and February 28, 2026, Brazil recorded significant growth of +12.6% in international arrivals compared to the same period last year. The analysis only considers trips lasting between 1 and 22 days, excluding residents and connections. The expansion is driven primarily by Argentina (+29.8%), Spain (+20%), Peru (+28.3%), Uruguay (+10.7%), and Portugal (+11.2%), which are showing strong recovery and growing interest in Brazil as a destination. Regional markets such as Chile (+6.1%) and Colombia (+12.6%) also reinforce the growth of intraregional flows, while mature markets such as the United States (-2.3%) and France (-4.1%) maintain stability within a positive global scenario. The overall balance confirms Brazil as one of the most sought-after destinations in the Southern Hemisphere, with solid demand for the upcoming peak season.
Among the main final destinations for international travelers within the country, Rio de Janeiro (34.5%) and São Paulo (23.2%) remain in the lead, together accounting for more than half of all international arrivals to Brazil. Also notable are Santa Catarina (+13.4%), Bahia (+9.9%), Pernambuco (+37.1%), Ceará (+11.3%), and Rio Grande do Norte (+28.4%),
which registered significant growth and reinforced the diversification of tourism demand throughout the country. States such as Alagoas (+43.5%), Rio Grande do Sul (+65.4%), and Pará (+22.1%) confirm the advancement of air connectivity and the strengthening of the international presence in destinations outside the traditional Southeast-Northeast axis.
This report is produced by PANROTAS and FECOMERCIOSP to support your business decisions. The contents are valuable assets to Destinations and Travel Organizations, both domestic as well as international. For further information please contact ri@ fecomercio.com.br redacao@panrotas.com.br
