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Headlines
Summer 25/26
Regional Victoria
Residential
Economy Key drivers
Residential sales
Residential annual rolling sale transactions tallied to 36,925 in the third quarter of 2025 in Regional Victoria, up 6% from the previous quarter and 17% higher than a year ago This was shaped by a lower interest rate despite restrictive lending conditions and an overall lower number of properties listed for sale on the market As a benchmark, over the past five years, the annual average was 34,629 sales
Share of state annual sales
Regional Victoria made up 25% of the total number of annual residential sales recorded in Victoria at the end of Q3 2025 This was higher than one year ago when the proportion was 22%, but remains below the 27% share recorded five years ago The change in residential sales activity over the past year saw Regional Victoria (+17%) outpace Greater Melbourne (-3%)
Tracking the total number of sales each year
Regional Victoria
Regional Victoria, Q3/25
Share of state annual sales, by number
Regional Victoria
Residential sales
Duration +15 days
Regional Victoria residential homes averaged 122 days on market in the year ending Q3 2025, from the time they were listed to the day they went under contract This duration was 120 days a quarter ago (+2 days) and 107 days a year ago (+15 days) A lower number of days on market tends to mean homes are selling faster with more desirable properties, while a higher number of days suggests a slower market with above market values. Looking back over the five-year average, it has taken 93 days to sell a home
Tracking average days on the market Regional
Newly advertised property listings in Regional Victoria were 2.2% higher in the month of September 2025, than the equivalent period last year, as reported by Cotality This change trended above both the -8.5% for the combined regional areas of Australia and -10 3% across Australia
Regional Victoria’s total number of listings in the month of September 2025 were 11.0% below the equivalent period last year, according to Cotality By comparison, the total listings change were -12.9% across the combined regional areas of Australia and -13 3% Australian-wide
Residential property prices across Regional Victoria fell by 0 3% in the year ending Q3 2025, with a 0 5% increase recorded in the most recent quarter This brought the average residential value to $614,500, reflecting modest housing demand whilst the number of new listings rose. Annual residential price growth has averaged 7 0% over the past five years.
Looking ahead, McGrath Research anticipates Regional Victoria residential property prices to increase by 5% by the end of 2025, followed by a further 4% rise in 2026. Factors taken into consideration include the growing number of new listings although total listings remains low, the upward trajectory of sales transactions and the longer average time being taken to sell a home
Forecast for average prices
Residential rents Update
Vacancy 1.9%
Regional Victoria residential rental vacancy was recorded at 1 9% in Q3 2025, remaining stable in the quarter and in total, 40 bps lower over the past year Generally, 3% vacancy is considered a balanced market between rental supply and demand Below this benchmark is considered to be an undersupplied pool of rental homes. Over the past five years, rental vacancy has also averaged 1 9% per year
Tracking residential rental vacancy
Regional Victoria
Yield +17 bps
Residential gross rental yields remained steady in Q3 2025 at 4 68% across Regional Victoria, whilst being 17 bps more than one year ago. Gross rental yields are a good initial measure of comparing the return of a property investment before expenses are deducted. Investment properties with a yield greater than 5% tends to be most desirable for properties located in regional areas, while below this, tends to indicate high property prices relative to rent, or low rental demand Gross rental yields have averaged 4 45% over the past five years.
Tracking gross rental yield
Regional Victoria
Residential rents Update
Regional Victoria residential rents rose 2.1% in Q3 2025, while increasing 7 7% over the past year, to stand at $490 per week Low vacancy and population growth have kept rents elevated, rising at a faster pace than previous years On average, over the past five years, rents grew 7 3% per year
Tracking average weekly rents Regional Victoria
Forecast for average rents Regional Victoria Rental outlook +6%
Whilst the completion of new builds remains low across Regional Victoria, there remains an undersupply of new homes being added to the rental pool while the population continues to climb As a result, McGrath Research forecast sustained upward pressure on rents of 4% at the end of 2025, with a further 6% rental growth likely in 2026
Regional Victoria
Regional Victoria refers to the area outside of ‘Greater Melbourne’ or ‘Rest of State’ for Victoria as defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Guiding you home
Michelle Ciesielski National Head of Research, McGrath Research
www.mcgrath.com.au/research
