Executive Summary
SECOND HALF 2025
The State of Connecticut State legislature approved a balanced 2026 budget based on revenue and cost expectations. This sound Fiscal profile is a source of stability for all Counties in the State. Fairfield (which includes the town of Fairfield) retains its position as one of the wealthiest and most educated regions in the US. Its major engines of economic growth are Financial Services, Education, Medical Services and Advanced Manufacturing. During 2025, Fairfield County maintained its AAA credit rating and Fitch reaffirmed its robust reserves and budget flexibility. Housing sector strength and affluent consumer resilience are the support of the local economy.
A favorable economic backdrop for the County underpins a commercial property sector that is selectively improving. The macroeconomic environment is constructive with consumer spending surprising in the upside and the service economy performing better than the manufacturing sector. Employment trends in Fairfield County are positive with growth driven by service industries. The unemployment rate most recently recorded for the County is below 3%, lower than Connecticut as a whole, Westchester County and many other cities in the Northeast. However, the national macroeconomic environment is volatile in a way that the long end of the interest rate curve can be significantly impacted by policy decisions and macroeconomic/political noise. Any dramatic fluctuations in 10-Year treasuries could have an impact on the path of recovery for commercial real estate.
Service Industries are a key driver of the local Fairfield economy but their impact on commercial real estate assets is mixed. Fairfield County is likely to experience commercial real estate pricing trends that are similar to what we are observing for the country as a whole. Nationally. property prices were mostly flat through 2025. Many observers expect values to move modestly higher in 2026. Gains are likely to be uneven and remain a function of property sector and asset quality.
There were no major corporate moves into Fairfield in the latter part of 2025, but business expansions underscored confidence in the outlook for the local economy. Examples are Wegmans new opening in Norwalk (first CT location) and numerous new business formations. The latter were dominated by micro-businesses, focused on services industries. Recorded as forming new businesses are: home services, health care and personal care, retail/food shops and professional consulting services. Some of these businesses are likely to require new real estate to operate from. On the investment side, recent high-profile sales in Fairfield County include The Mills Apartments at 10 Glenville St, Greenwich for $98 Million. Aker Company from NY was the purchaser. This is an institutional asset that participated in an office to residential conversion. The re-developed property also has high-end retail square footage underscoring the attractiveness of mixed-use redevelopments.
In the office segment, the Stamford Towers office complex (330,000 sf) traded with an adjacent 0.21-acre lot, for $65 Million as return to the office gained some traction. Argent Ventures, a New York City-based private equity real estate investment and development firm, purchased 301-601 Merritt 7 for an undisclosed price from Merritt 7 Venture LLC. The four-building complex within the six-building Merritt 7 Corporate Park encompass 945,000 square feet of commercial space that includes tenants such as Xerox, Terex, Emcor, Hearst Connecticut Media Group, Common Fund, Datto/Kaseya, MBI, and LBB Specialties.
Executive Summary
SECOND HALF 2025
In the Flex segment of the market, two fully leased auto dealerships in Darien were acquired last quarter by Legacy Automotive Capital, for $18.5 Million. This Malvern, Pennsylvania-based firm specializes in sale-leaseback financing for franchised auto dealerships
Greenwich Offices – A Resilient Office Market is Defending Occupancy
The office market in Greenwich has consistently been one of the most resilient and robust office markets in the country. Supply constraints and convenient location define this niche market and ensure that supply will be limited. Financial services companies are attracted to it by the proximity to NYC and convenience to the Greenwich residential areas. During the second half of 2025, leasing activity improved for offices in Greenwich and supply demand was favorable. Interestingly, it was the sub-let segment that led to leasing volume improvement. The average lease price declined 5%+ as compared to a year ago but sub-let deals may have been completed at a discount, driving prices downward.
Fairfield Offices – A Rebound in Sight
During the second half of 2025 Fairfield offices had one of the best leasing periods over the last three years. Volumes were strong and occupancy increased. Pricing was stable and both direct leasing and sub-let performance were excellent.
In the investment side, there are pockets of strength in smaller buildings, for example, a Westport-based landscaping owner bought a Norwalk mixed use building for $1M. This is a small acquisition but tells the story of owner user acquisitions being impactful, signaling demand for small format mixed-use in Norwalk’s secondary corridors. Other Fairfield secondary markets are experiencing similar trends. In Trumbull, Henkel purchased an office building for $4.9M. Here, a global consumer goods company is doubling down on its Connecticut footprint, with planned renovations suggesting long term commitment to the region. Lastly, Stamford Health acquired a 0.71 acre parcel for $2.5M. It is believed to be for future development. This is part of a broader expansion strategy, reinforcing healthcare as one of Fairfield County’s most stable economic anchors.
Greenwich Retail – Pricing Adjusts
Greenwich retail had a relatively slow second half of 2025. Despite some apparent weakness, the fundamentals are strong, vacancy very low and landlords have the luxury of waiting for the right tenant which may explain apparent deal weakness. In general, this is a very robust retail market with great visibility and uniquely high-end demographics. Some prominent business openings on Greenwich Ave. were abc carpet & home at 181 Greenwich Ave. The space was previously occupied by Express Edit, which closed last year. Also, Hill House Home, the lifestyle brand launched in 2016 by designer Nell Diamond, opened a store at 117 Greenwich Ave. in late 2025.
Fairfield Retail – Weak Leasing but Pricing Holds
Fairfield retail shops struggled to lease during the quarter; however, vacancies are low and tenants struggle to find the right location for their business. Pricing has been relatively stable for the year and fluctuations are likely driven by mix. Among retailer expansions is the 13,000 square feet addition to Shop Rite located on Black Rock Turnpike.
Executive Summary
SECOND HALF 2025
Fairfield Transactions
Transaction volume was subdued during the second half of 2025 as risk aversion and rate volatility increased due to market uncertainty and the Federal Government shutdown. Banks and real estate lenders are increasingly more comfortable underwriting real estate as pricing has been re-set and the economic background is constructive. We expect the long-awaited opening of the transaction markets to take place in 2026
About this Commercial Real Estate Report
This report was researched and written by Teresa Marziano. Please contact Teresa (914- 441-2254) or (TMarziano@ HoulihanLawrence.com) for questions, comments or feedback about the contents of this report.
HOULIHAN Lawrence Commercial Team
Commercial real estate is facing a transition period as low-interest rate loans become due. Interesting commercial real estate investment opportunities will likely become available. Investors must be prepared to evaluate and make decisions expediently as opportunities emerge. Given the consumer and market changes brought about by the intense period of change we have experienced due to structurally higher inflation, higher financing costs, and most recently, policy changes, it is very important to correctly assess market and economic risks that add to the complexities of acquiring commercial real estate. Understanding the ever-changing market forces that are shaping the fundamentals for each property requires a deep knowledge of the property, local and regional insights, and close contacts with the right financial partners. Our Team is highly skilled in all these areas.
Reach out to HOULIHAN LAWRENCE COMMERCIAL for a complementary assessment of your real estate, an evaluation of a purchase target, and to receive an in-depth perspective on the ever-changing Westchester commercial real estate market.
Fairfield Unemployment Below under 3% and pre-Pandemic Levels
FAIRFIELD’S UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
Fairfield’s unemployment rate is below pre-pandemic levels. Strong economy and low unemployment bodes well for the local economy and real estate markets.
Rate in
Sources: COSTAR, US. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Unemployment Rate and Fairfield’s Median Household Income, CT. All data retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; January 2026
Unemployment
Fairfield County, CT
Office Space – Fairfield Appears to be in Recovery and Greenwich continues to show resilience
After a tough period in the middle of the year, Greenwich office market begun to recover in the last quarter of 2024. Fairfield office markets, resembling other office markets in the country, is also showing signs of recovery. Both, occupancy and price are on an upswing.
Sources: COSTAR, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Data Reflects Fundamentals for Fairfield County and Greenwich office markets – January 2026 HOULIHANLAWRENCE.COM/COMMERCIAL
Retail Shows Stability and low Vacancy
Greenwich retail real estate has continued to reduce vacancy but leasing rates have declined to entice tenants. The larger Fairfield markets are relatively stable and showing some rent recovery
FAIRFIELD RETAIL - LOW VACANCY AND SOME LEASE RATE RECOVERY
Sources: COSTAR, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Data Reflects Fundamentals for Fairfield County and Greenwich office markets – January 2026
Investment Activity in Fairfield County Still Subdued
Investment activity in Fairfield County still subdued and pricing indicates that transactions are concentrated in smaller secondary assets.
SUBDUED TRANSACTION VOLUME
Sources: COSTAR, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Data Reflects Fundamentals for Fairfield County and Greenwich office markets – January 2026