Will Europe scratch Japan’s back? by Rem Korteweg
What do ‘little green men’ in eastern Ukraine and an oil rig in the South China Sea have in common? To Japanese politicians and officials, they are the copy-cat tactics of two major powers challenging the status quo in their neighbourhood. Tokyo says Russian and Chinese behaviour is similar and that democracies, including in Europe, must club together. But Europe is too pre-occupied with the Ukraine crisis and the aftermath of the European elections to take such a global view. When in May a Chinese oil company sent an oil rig into waters claimed by Vietnam, it was the latest in a series of provocations in the contested maritime zone. Tokyo likens Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea to Beijing’s bellicose attitude towards the Senkakus, an island group in the East China Sea controlled by Japan, but which China claims under the name Diaoyu. Chinese merchant vessels, fishermen and aircraft regularly cross into Japanese waters and airspace, increasing the risk of a serious conflict. The Japanese government is struggling to develop a strategy for dealing with such non-military provocations, which it describes as the ‘grey zone’ between peace and war. They see an equivalent with the pro-Russian militants, who wear uniforms without insignias, who have destabilised parts of eastern Ukraine. Japanese officials warn that Russia’s annexation of Crimea could embolden China. The Japanese government does not want to be alone in responding to China’s assertiveness. It hopes South-East Asian countries will overcome their differences and push back against Chinese
bullying, but ultimately Japan counts on the West; particularly the US, but Europe’s support would be welcome too. The Ukraine crisis coincided with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s visit to six European countries, the EU and NATO, where Abe drew parallels between Russian and Chinese revisionist behaviour. The struggling economies of Europe and Japan both depend to some extent on their large, difficult neighbours. Europe imports Russian oil and gas, and exports manufactured goods in return; Japan relies on China both as a market and a source of high-tech components. But here the similarities end. In Europe, there is little support for sacrificing economic relationships to punish Russia. In Japan, the government wants to reduce its vulnerability to China by deepening trade ties with others. This is why Abe strongly backs the USled negotiations for a ‘transpacific partnership’ and an EU-Japan free trade agreement. The EU and its member-states often overlook the geopolitical significance of such trade deals.