Insight
Turbulence ahead for Turkey and the West by Luigi Scazzieri, 20 May 2022 Turkey’s objections to Finland and Sweden joining NATO have put the spotlight on Ankara’s role in the alliance. Even if a compromise is found, Turkey’s relations with Europe and the US will remain fractious. When Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine in February, it appeared that one unexpected silver lining could be improved relations between Turkey and its allies. When the invasion began, relations were thawing after reaching a low point in 2020, when Ankara’s exploration for hydrocarbons in waters near Greece and Cyprus had led to high tensions with the EU and the US. In 2021, Turkey had wound down its exploration activities and adopted a more conciliatory foreign policy, trying to improve relations with the EU and the US, as well as with countries in the region, like the UAE, Israel and Saudi Arabia. The threat from Russia seemed likely to reinforce this détente and push Turkey and its Western allies closer. Ankara firmly condemned Russia’s invasion and expressed its strong support for Ukraine’s sovereignty. While Turkey did not apply sanctions to Russia, it provided Ukraine with valuable military support, in the form of its Bayraktar drones, and it facilitated talks between Russia and Ukraine. Ankara blocked Russian military ships from transiting through the Turkish straits and barred from its airspace Russian planes carrying military personnel to Syria. Western leaders stressed Turkey’s important role as a NATO ally, and there were signs of improving relations. Turkey restarted discussions with France and Italy on jointly producing an air defence system. The Biden administration moved forward with seeking Congress’ approval for the sale of missiles to Turkey, along with upgrades for Turkish F-16 fighters. Notably, French President Emmanuel Macron put forward a plan for a joint operation with Turkey and Greece to evacuate Mariupol – which was particularly striking given that France and Greece had been amongst the EU countries which had the worst relations with Turkey. Then came Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s statement that Turkey did not support Finland and Sweden joining NATO. Because accession to the alliance requires unanimity, the process is now on hold. Turkey has laid out a series of complaints in relation to Finnish and Swedish membership. The main one is that the two countries, but particularly Sweden, have been tolerant of the activities of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a group that has waged an armed insurgency against the Turkish state since the mid-1980s, and which the EU and US classify as a terrorist organisation. Ankara also accuses Sweden CER INSIGHT: Turbulence ahead for Turkey and the West 20 May 2022
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