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Europe and the Gaza conflict by Luigi Scazzieri, 20 October 2023 Europe is divided on the Israel-Hamas conflict and has few good options to deal with it. But Europeans won’t be able to escape the conflict’s consequences. Europe’s response to the conflict between Israel and Hamas has been chaotic. In the immediate aftermath of the massacres of Israeli civilians carried out by Hamas on October 7th, the EU’s Commissioner for enlargement, Olivér Várhelyi, unilaterally announced that the EU would cut its aid to the Palestinian Authority, sparking a spat with other Commissioners and public rebukes by memberstates. Attention has also focused on Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s unconditional support for Israel during her impromptu visit to the country. Her initial unwillingness to call on Israel to respect international humanitarian law in its fight against Hamas contrasted sharply with the approach of other EU leaders such as High Representative for foreign policy Josep Borrell, and irked many, both in Brussels and in EU capitals. On October 15th, EU leaders agreed a common position emphasising “Israel’s right to defend itself in line with humanitarian and international law” and affirming “the importance to ensure the protection of all civilians at all times in line with international humanitarian law”. But disunity continues to bubble underneath the surface, and it remains to be seen whether the EU can stick to a united position. Much of the debate on Europe’s role in the conflict has focused on internal dynamics in Brussels and in national capitals. But that has hidden the fact that more internal coherence would not remedy Europe’s lack of good options to deal with the conflict. First, the EU has no leverage to negotiate the release of the hostages abducted by Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Europeans are not particularly well placed to be mediators. They have less influence than the Americans with Israel, and Turkey, Egypt or Qatar are much better placed than the EU to liaise between Israel and Hamas, whether on releasing the hostages or on a hypothetical ceasefire. Second, little that the EU says will have a meaningful impact on Israel’s choices on how to conduct operations against Hamas. The Israeli response will be primarily determined by domestic public opinion, military considerations and by the degree of political and military support that the US provides. Only CER INSIGHT: EUROPE AND THE GAZA CONFLICT 20 October 2023
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