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Is European defence missing its moment? by Luigi Scazzieri, 16 January 2023 European defence budgets are increasing in the wake of Russia’s war on Ukraine. But if memberstates don’t co-ordinate their spending better, fragmentation will persist and Europe’s defence industry could weaken. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February last year was a watershed moment in Europe’s security. Even though Russia’s performance in Ukraine has been poor, Moscow will remain a threat to Europe so long as Putin, or someone else with his expansionist worldview, is in power in Russia. At the same time, challenges in Europe’s southern neighbourhood are intensifying, with Iran’s rapidly expanding nuclear programme standing out as a threat. All this is taking place as the United States is increasingly focusing on China, meaning that Europe will have to do more for its own defence. Washington wants its European allies to make a larger contribution to conventional forces to deter and defend against Russia, in particular by developing more capable land forces. The US will also be less able to focus on security issues in the Middle East and Africa, leaving Europeans to take more responsibility for security issues there. The problem is that today, Europeans are still greatly dependent on the US for security, and are ill prepared to cope alone. The campaigns in Afghanistan, Mali and Libya underscored the extent to which Europeans depend on the US for capabilities such as command and control, intelligence and surveillance, air transport and aerial refuelling. And without US military aid to Ukraine, Russia’s offensive would probably have been more successful. The fighting in Ukraine has also reminded Europeans of the need for adequate stocks of ammunition and heavy weaponry like artillery, rockets, air defence systems and tanks – something most have neglected to maintain since the Cold War. Member-states’ donations to Ukraine have depleted stocks of equipment and munitions, and defence industries have a limited ability to ramp up production quickly, highlighting the need for larger stockpiles. Since Russia’s February invasion there have been positive signs that Europeans are taking security more seriously. Many countries have provided significant aid to Ukraine and are increasing their contribution to NATO’s deterrence posture, deploying more troops along the alliance’s eastern flank. The war also spurred Europeans to increase their defence budgets. According to the European Commission, by May 2022 European countries had announced defence spending increases of around €200 billion since Russia’s invasion. The EU has also taken important steps: it provided over €3 billion of military assistance to Ukraine through the European Peace Facility, proving that it is willing to provide partners with CER INSIGHT: Is European defence missing its moment? 16 January 2023
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