Insight
Premature elections won’t stabilise Libya by Luigi Scazzieri 10 October 2018
The push for elections in Libya risks deepening the country’s divisions. Europe should agree on a common position, and work towards a settlement acceptable to key Libyan and regional players. Recent violence in Tripoli left dozens dead, shattering the illusion of relative stability in Libya’s capital, and casting the country in the spotlight once again. Recent fighting should put a brake on a French-backed plan to hold elections in December. Superficially, elections might appear tempting as a means of breaking the political deadlock in the country, but security conditions do not allow for a free and fair contest, and Libya’s key players have not committed themselves to upholding the results. Elections risk deepening the country’s divisions and precipitating an increase in violence. Instead of searching for quick fixes through elections, Europeans should focus on stabilising the country over the long term. This will require European countries to work together, not against each other. Since 2014, Libya has been divided between competing centres of power. In December 2015, the UN brokered an agreement, the Libyan Political Agreement (LPA), leading to the formation of a Government of National Accord, based in Tripoli. However, many Libyans never accepted the LPA. As a result, the Government of National Accord relies on the goodwill of militias, while its prime minister, Fayez al-Serraj, is a powerless figurehead. Libya’s parliament, the House of Representatives, is based in Libya’s east and has never fully endorsed the LPA. The House of Representatives has the backing of General Haftar, a strongman with close ties to Egypt and the UAE, and warm relations with Russia and France. Although the Government of National Accord and the House of Representatives are not openly fighting, there have been clashes between militias loosely aligned with either side. Haftar’s stated ambition is to control the whole of Libya, but this idea is anathema to many backers of the Government of National Accord, who oppose him because of his anti-Islamist stance. The cities of Misrata and Zintan are powerful actors in their own right, only nominally aligned with the Government of National Accord. In addition to these main players, there are a number of militias and extremist groups that often fight each other.
CER INSIGHT: Premature elections won’t stabilise Libya 10 October 2018
info@cer.EU | WWW.CER.EU
1