Insight
The cost of Brexit: October 2021 by John Springford 13 December 2021
In October 2021, UK goods trade was 15.7 per cent, or £12.6 billion, lower than it would have been if the UK had stayed in the EU’s single market and customs union. For many months, the CER’s cost of Brexit model has found that UK goods trade is between 11 and 16 per cent lower as a result of Britain’s exit from the single market and customs union in January 2021. Using the data for October 2021, the model puts the cost at 15.7 per cent, or £12.6 billion (Chart 1). That’s a little higher than the estimate for September (12.2 per cent), because imports and exports grew more rapidly in October in ‘doppelgänger UK’ – a group of countries whose trade and other economic data closely matched that of the UK between the referendum and the end of the transition period.
CER INSIGHT: The cost of Brexit: OCTOBER 2021 13 December 2021
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