Insight
Can Hungary’s opposition win and restore democracy? by Zselyke Csaky, 21 January 2026 After 15 years, Viktor Orbán could lose power. But the opposition’s path is fraught with obstacles, from a lopsided electoral system to the extraordinary difficulty of restoring democracy even if they win. Hungary is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections on April 12. After more than 15 years, this will be the first time that Prime Minister Viktor Orbán faces a strong opponent and could lose power. The stakes of the election could not be higher: if Orbán wins, Hungary will continue its slide into autocracy domestically and will keep blocking joint action at the EU level. But if he loses, a unique opportunity opens up: at home, the opposition will have a chance at re-establishing democracy, and within the EU, it could change Hungary’s position as the perennial obstructionist. While Brussels has developed creative ways to handle a difficult Budapest, excluding it from decisions wherever possible, it has yet to find a permanent solution to Hungary’s vetoes. This means that the elections matter for the EU as a whole. Because of the global context, these elections are even more important: the challenges the EU faces, from a sputtering economic engine to a warmongering Russia and a hostile United States, are more significant than before. The opposition Tisza party is currently leading in the polls, but things can still shift in the next few weeks, and a victory is far from certain in Hungary’s lopsided electoral system. This insight looks at the plausibility of an opposition victory and the chances of restoring democracy in Hungary afterwards. Can the opposition win in Hungary? An opposition victory will depend on at least three factors: the popularity of the opposition party or parties; the peculiarities of the Hungarian electoral system; and the events leading up to the election. Domestic politics in Hungary has undergone a significant change in the past two years. The traditional left-right divide that defined Hungary’s politics since the early 1990s has collapsed. It has been replaced by a transformed arena where a political newcomer, Péter Magyar and his Tisza party, has gone from CER INSIGHT: CAN HUNGARY’S OPPOSITION WIN AND RESTORE DEMOCRACY? 21 January 2026
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