Insight
The cost of Brexit: December 2021 by John Springford, 10 March 2022 By December 2021, leaving the single market and customs union had reduced UK goods trade by 14.9 per cent. And new analysis shows that UK exports have taken a larger hit than imports. For many months, the CER’s cost of Brexit model has found that UK goods trade was between 11 and 16 per cent lower as a result of Britain’s exit from the single market and customs union. Using the data for December 2021, the model puts the trade loss at 14.9 per cent, or £12.9 billion for the month (Chart 1). That is a little lower than my last estimate, for October (15.7 per cent), because imports and exports grew more rapidly in December in the UK than in the doppelgänger UK. Chart 1: The cost of Brexit, December 2021 UK
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Doppelgänger UK Single market exit
Exports plus imports, £bn, seasonally adjusted
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£12.6 bn/ 14.9% shortfall in total goods trade
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10
6 il 2 0 Au 17 g 20 De 17 c2 0 Ap 17 ril 20 Au 18 g 20 De 18 c2 Ap 018 ril 20 Au 19 g 20 19 De c2 Ap 019 ril 20 Au 20 g 20 De 20 c2 0 Ap 20 ril 20 Au 21 g 20 De 21 c2 02 1
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Ap r
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Au g
c2
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Source: CER analysis of OECD, UK Office of National Statistics data. Note: The countries included in the doppelgänger are the United States (23 per cent), Germany (11 per cent), Canada (10 per cent), New Zealand (8 per cent), Australia, Greece, Iceland (all 6 per cent) and Luxembourg and Norway (4 per cent each). The remaining countries made up less than 1 per cent of the doppelgänger.
CER INSIGHT: The cost of Brexit: DECEMBER 2021 10 March 2022
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