Insight
Brexit, four years on: Answers to two trade paradoxes by John Springford, 25 January 2024 Since the UK left the EU in 2020, its goods exports to the EU have not performed any worse than to the rest of the world, and its services exports have grown strongly. How come? Headline UK trade numbers have been surprisingly robust after Brexit. Goods exports to the EU have tracked those to the rest of the world, despite new trade barriers being imposed on the former but not on the latter (Chart 1). And services exports to both the EU and the rest of the world have been growing at a decent clip since the UK left the single market. Chart 1: Since Brexit, Britain’s goods exports to the EU have tracked those to the rest of the world Rest of world
EU 30
UK leaves single market
£bn, current prices, not seasonally adjusted
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5
3
23
2
y2 Ju l
Ja n
y2
22 n
Ju l
21
Ja
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ly Ju
Ja n
ly Ju
n Ja
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y1 Ju l
Ja n
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y1 Ju l
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Ja n
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y1 Ju l
Ja n
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y1 Ju l
n Ja
ly Ju
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n Ja
ly Ju
Ja n
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0
Source: CER analysis of ONS, ‘Trade in goods: Country by commodity’ data.
CER INSIGHT: BREXIT, FOUR YEARS ON: ANSWERS TO TWO TRADE PARADOXES 25 January 2024
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