Insight
Boris Johnson and Brexit: What to expect by John Springford 22 July 2019
There are no compromises on the backstop acceptable to the EU or a Johnson-led government. A general election fought by the Conservatives on a no deal ticket is therefore very likely. It is fitting, if unnerving, that the person who led Britain into the Brexit maze will now be in charge of leading us out. Had Boris Johnson – and to a lesser extent, Michael Gove – not lent the Leave campaign their charisma and respectability, it is unlikely that the public would have voted for Brexit. Johnson, who will probably be elected prime minister by around 150,000 Conservative party members, will have to make some decisions quickly that will be extremely unpopular, either with his base or with a majority of the public. The stakes could not be higher: the decisions he makes may determine whether the United Kingdom itself continues to exist. The high degree of uncertainty makes predictions difficult, but the point of this analysis is to try to make some educated guesses about the decisions Johnson will take. The October 31st deadline imposed by the EU means that Johnson will spend August and September doing three things. Ramp up no deal planning First, as Johnson has already signalled, he will ramp up no deal planning. This will serve as an attempt to both force concessions from the EU by convincing them that he is serious about no deal, and to mitigate the disruption to trade and investment if it happens. He is very unlikely to achieve either aim. The costs of no deal will be four times larger for the UK than for the EU-27, because exports to the EU make up around 13 per cent of UK GDP, while exports to the UK make up 2.5 per cent of EU-27 GDP. And the EU thinks that making concessions will sell Ireland down the river, sending a signal to other smaller member-states that they cannot count on EU solidarity. Ireland’s prime minister, Leo Varadkar, has shown no willingness to water down the backstop: the opposition party, Fianna Fáil, is as committed to the backstop as he is, and the overwhelming majority of Irish voters support a tough line. The rest of the EU fear that concessions would embolden continental eurosceptics to test the EU’s resolve on other contentious issues. Planning is unlikely to do much to mitigate the short-term disruption of no deal. Both the UK and the EU have published their own no deal plans: these include unilateral measures to lower or remove import CER INSIGHT: Boris Johnson and Brexit: What to expect 22 July 2019
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