Insight
Americans choose their president: Europe must live with the consequences by Ian Bond and Luigi Scazzieri 2 November 2020
Europeans do not get a vote in US elections, but the outcomes can affect them profoundly. This year European political leaders and pundits are watching more closely than usual, to see if Joe Biden can stop Donald Trump winning a second term in office. This election could prove terminal for the 75-year-old transatlantic partnership, or give it a new lease of life. Before Trump’s 2016 campaign, Democrats and Republicans broadly agreed on the need to uphold the multilateral world order, to promote free trade and the free market, and to nurture democracy. Trump’s isolationist economic and foreign policies smashed this consensus. In his first term, Trump’s approach to both allies and adversaries has severely damaged US and European interests. He is no fan of NATO, having suggested frequently that other NATO members are ripping off the US by failing to spend enough money on their own defence and (particularly in the case of Germany) that they owe the US or NATO enormous sums of money – claims that are at best extremely misleading. In his 2016 campaign and subsequently, he cast doubt on whether the US would defend an ally that had been attacked. This year, Trump announced the withdrawal of some troops from Germany, without consulting his allies or even his own military chiefs, and without any apparent rationale other than a desire to punish Germany. Trump has undermined the international arms control regimes that have contributed to European security and imposed some constraints on Russia’s military ambitions. There were legitimate grounds for thinking that Russia was in breach of its obligations under the INF Treaty not to develop medium-range missiles, but Trump’s decision to scrap the treaty left Europe more vulnerable to the deployment of new Russian nuclear missiles near its borders. His withdrawal from the Open Skies Treaty makes it easier for Russia to conceal its military activities from Western eyes. And Trump is even more hostile to the EU than he is to NATO, describing the Union (according to former National Security Adviser John Bolton) as “worse than China, but smaller”, and using dubious national security justifications to impose tariffs on European steel and aluminium. CER INSIGHT: Americans choose their president: Europe must live with the consequences 2 November 2020
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