Insight
A no-deal Brexit is not inevitable by Charles Grant 12 August 2019
It has never looked more likely that the UK will leave the EU without a deal. But there are still ways for Britain to avoid a no-deal Brexit. Boris Johnson says he will not talk to the EU unless it agrees to scrap the Irish backstop. The EU says that any deal with Britain must be based on the current withdrawal agreement, including the backstop. With neither side willing to blink, Britain seems set to leave the EU on October 31st. That is the default option, required by British and European law. In order to prevent Brexit on that date, the UK Parliament must either revoke Article 50, for which there is at present almost certainly no majority; or pass a deal, which looks unlikely in the time available; or compel the government to seek an extension of Article 50, to which the EU must agree. MPs intent on stopping a no-deal Brexit will find that none of the routes to that objective is easy to follow. At the moment Johnson seems highly unlikely to soften his stance vis-à-vis the EU. But could he in the last resort do so? Some of those close to Johnson – ill-informed about the thinking of European leaders – seem to believe sincerely that the EU is scared of no deal and that it will therefore cave in at the last minute. But that will not happen. The EU is resigned to no deal and is united in its support for the Irish and maintaining the backstop. Abandoning the backstop would mean accepting a hard border in Ireland for the long term and thus – in the view of most EU governments – endangering peace on the island. The EU thinks that no deal would not last for very long, because the UK – suffering more than the EU – would come back and swallow a deal that resembled the withdrawal agreement. As the end of October approaches, Johnson will realise that the EU is not going to budge. He will watch financial markets falling, shoppers buying in panic, foreign investors squealing, farmers threatening to slaughter livestock, tensions rising in Northern Ireland and nationalism surging in Scotland. He may ask himself whether he really wants to fight an election with the economy in turmoil, borders congested and CER INSIGHT: A no-deal Brexit is not inevitable 12 August 2019
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