Insight
One step closer to a rupture: Europe, the US and Turkey by Luigi Scazzieri 17 October 2019
Turkey’s relations with the EU and US are in freefall after its new offensive in northern Syria. The EU should do what it can to avoid a broader rupture between Ankara and the West. Turkey’s offensive against the Kurdish YPG in northern Syria has left relations with its Western partners in tatters. After encouraging Turkey to embark upon the operation by withdrawing US troops from the Turkish-Syrian border, US President Donald Trump has now imposed sanctions on Turkey, and threatened to “totally destroy and obliterate” its economy unless it desists from the operation. The EU has also condemned Turkey’s offensive, saying it “seriously undermines the stability and the security of the whole region”, and member-states have pledged to restrict arms sales to Ankara, while stopping short of a full embargo. Turkey’s image in the West has suffered tremendous damage: there is a lot of sympathy for the YPG, which helped defeat the Islamic State. Meanwhile, few are willing to take Ankara’s argument seriously that the YPG presence on its border represents a threat because of the group’s links to the PKK, a terrorist group that has been waging an armed insurgency in Turkey since the 1980s. The EU’s move to suspend arms exports is unlikely to stop the Turkish offensive, given that Turkey views its operation as vital to national security. Instead, now that the Kurds have aligned themselves with the Syrian government and Russia to counter Turkey, fighting will probably end when Turkey and Russia come to an agreement. But Europe will pay the price for Trump’s rash move to suddenly withdraw US forces from the Syria-Turkey border. In the immediate term, there is a risk that renewed conflict will lead to a humanitarian crisis, and fighting has already allowed some IS members detained by Kurdish forces to escape. Turkey’s intervention could also put the 2016 EU-Turkey migration deal at risk if Ankara follows through with its plans to resettle some of the Syrian refugees it is hosting in the ‘safe zone’ it wants to set up in northern Syria. This would undermine the deal, as sending migrants back to Turkey would be contrary to the EU’s legal obligations if there were a risk of them being returned to Syria against their will. Finally, Trump’s withdrawal of US forces has undermined US credibility as an ally, and strengthened Russia’s position in the region. This in turn will reduce the EU’s influence, as member-states find it difficult to act in the region without the US.
CER INSIGHT: One step closer to a rupture: Europe, the US and Turkey 17 October 2019
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