Insight
Deal or no deal? Five questions on Johnson’s Brexit negotiation by Charles Grant 20 September 2019
With less than six weeks to go before Britain is due to leave the European Union, Boris Johnson says his government is working hard for a deal. This article considers five key questions. Is Johnson serious about getting a deal? If there is a deal, what would a revised withdrawal agreement look like? Does the political declaration on the future relationship matter? What factors could encourage the EU and the UK to find a compromise? And what are the obstacles to a deal? 1. Is Johnson serious about getting a deal on Brexit? Nobody beyond the prime minister and perhaps his closest confidants can be quite certain what he wants out of the Brexit process. The very hard line that he took in his early weeks as prime minister convinced many that he actively sought to leave with no deal. His talk of negotiation appeared to be a ploy to make it look like the EU would be to blame for a breakdown. Yet Johnson made a fairly good impression during his meetings in August with EU leaders like Angela Merkel, Emmanuel Macron and Mark Rutte. He seemed well-informed and serious about a deal, according to officials present. Having initially said that he would insist on many changes to the withdrawal agreement, he switched to saying that he could live with it so long as the backstop was removed. And despite everything that has happened since – such as the proroguing of Parliament and the sacking of 21 moderate MPs from the Conservative Party – politicians and officials in EU capitals remain more optimistic than those based in Brussels. Johnson’s recent failures at home have increased his incentives for striking a bargain. If he cannot get the withdrawal agreement through Parliament by October 19th, the Act of Parliament promoted by Hilary Benn will make him seek an extension of Article 50 until January 31st. Parliament has also blocked Johnson’s efforts to hold a general election, at least for now. So he is stuck: he can do what the Act requires, which would be humiliating – since he promised to take the UK out by October 31st, “do or die”; or he can refuse to implement the bill, in which case he would be acting illegally. But if he can forge a deal with the EU in time, and push it through Parliament, the Act’s requirement that he seek an extension becomes void. He could then move towards an election in triumphant mode, having achieved Brexit, and almost certainly weakened the Brexit Party. CER INSIGHT: DEAL OR NO DEAL? FIVE QUESTIONS ON BORIS JOHNSON’S BREXIT TALKS 20 September 2019
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