Business as usual is not acceptable by Charles Grant
In Britain, Denmark, France and Greece, anti-establishment parties won the most votes. But the European elections were less of an earthquake than some have proclaimed. Only about 150 of the 751 MEPs elected are hostile to the EU. The moderate parties will collaborate to ensure that the Parliament does its job of passing laws. Indirectly, however, the elections will have big consequences for the EU – particularly through their impact on national politics in countries like Britain and France. In Britain, despite UKIP’s victorious score of 27 per cent, David Cameron’s Conservatives, on 24 per cent, look somewhat stronger than the opposition Labour Party, on 25 per cent. This is because British governments usually regain support in the run-up to a general election (the next one is due in May 2015). Many UKIP voters – having made their protest – are likely to return to the Conservatives, to keep Labour out. Cameron will also profit from the economic recovery. Labour could still win the next election, but the chances of a Cameron victory – bringing about the in-out EU referendum that he has promised for 2017 – have grown. Marine Le Pen’s Front National won 25 per cent in France, humiliating François Hollande’s Socialists, who scored just 14 per cent. The French political system is drifting in a eurosceptic direction. Never popular in France, ‘Brussels’ will be bashed more often. Nicolas Sarkozy, the former Gaullist president, has called for the Schengen agreement on passport-free travel to be suspended and
for half the EU’s powers to be repatriated. The Gaullist movement’s old wounds over Europe are reopening (in recent years the pro-EU wing has predominated). The left wing of the governing Socialists, who dislike the EU for its economic liberalism, is emboldened: it will try to stop Hollande pushing through the market-friendly reforms that would strengthen the economy. An introverted France, riven by arguments over Europe, and weakened by a sluggish economy, will be unable to rebalance the currently uneven Franco-German relationship. Germany’s strong economic performance, the high electoral scores of its governing parties and Chancellor Angela Merkel’s personal authority will all reinforce German leadership of the EU. Britain’s waning influence, a consequence of its possible departure, is one reason for German dominance. But Italy, seldom an influential EU country on account of its weak governments and stagnant economy, now has a chance to become