No easy choices: Realpolitik in Mesopotamia by Rem Korteweg
US president Barack Obama is leading an international effort to “degrade and ultimately destroy” the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, known as ISIS or ISIL, which has occupied large swathes of Syria and Iraq. The US has attacked the terrorist group in both countries; it will also train Iraqi Sunni forces, and support Syria’s moderate opposition. Success, however, could depend on the ability of the West and its Arab allies to co-operate – at least informally – with Damascus and Tehran. ISIS poses a threat to Europe. The group has promised that some of the approximately 2,500 European fighters in its ranks will return to attack European targets. A number of ISIS-inspired plots in Europe have already been foiled. In July, eight EU states agreed to share intelligence and co-operate to apprehend returning fighters, and to stop ISIS from recruiting in European cities. At the European Council meeting in October, the remaining 20 member-states should also sign up.
support. In Iraq, this means Sunni communities. Some of the 750 US military personnel deployed to Iraq will train Sunni ‘national guard’ units to fight ISIS. This is a challenge. Sunni unhappiness with the Baghdad elite gave ISIS fertile recruiting ground. The US wisely pressured Iraq’s previous Shia prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, who pursued sectarian policies, to step down in August. But his successor, Haidar al-Abadi, must now show that he can convince Sunnis to resist ISIS.
As French airstrikes on September 18th demonstrated, some Europeans are willing to contribute militarily, though only over Iraqi territory. The UK, Belgium, the Netherlands and others may follow the French lead. But neither President Obama nor European governments have any intention of sending ground troops. As in other counter-terrorism campaigns, the US wants to rely on drones, missiles and airstrikes to weaken ISIS, allowing local forces to retake territory.
The Kurds in Iraq should also help. They are receiving heavy weapons from, amongst others, Germany and the US. Iraqi Kurdistan is stable, energy-rich, investment-friendly and a potentially viable state. But there is a risk that battlefield success could revive Kurdish aspirations for independence. Given the significant Kurdish minorities in Iran, Syria and Turkey, governments in the region would resist such ambitions. The EU should warn Kurdish leaders that such rash steps would add to the region’s turmoil and jeopardise the stability it currently enjoys.
Western airpower cannot succeed without local