Britain’s populist arms race over immigration by John Springford and Simon Tilford
Britain’s immigration debate is damaging the country’s economic and political interests. It will also make it harder for David Cameron to renegotiate the terms of Britain’s EU membership in a way that satisfies Tory eurosceptics. While seeking reform in the name of opening Europe to the rest of the world and boosting its competitiveness, the UK government is pushing for limits on immigration from other memberstates. This confirms the worst stereotypes about the British in other capitals: that they are not committed to the founding principles of the EU; have a tendency towards nationalism; and preach free enterprise, but are selective about what enterprise should be free and what should be limited. Britain’s stance on EU migration risks alienating countries – such as Poland – that might otherwise support its suggestions for reform. Somehow, Cameron will have to bridge the gap between anti-immigrant populism at home and realism abroad. Why has EU immigration become such a toxic issue in Britain? According to conventional wisdom, it is because of the unexpectedly large numbers of Central and Eastern Europeans that migrated to the UK following the lifting of restrictions in 2004: there are now around 650,000 Poles living in Britain. But the EU estimates that there are over 900,000 Romanians living in Italy and approximately 750,000 in Spain (both countries opened up their labour markets to Bulgaria and Romania in 2007). Indeed, the number of people from other EU countries living in the UK (excluding the Irish) stands at around 1.8 million, a lower figure than in France, Germany or
Spain in absolute terms and proportionately lower than in many other EU member-states. And there is scant reason for the UK to expect large numbers of Bulgarians and Romanians now that it has fully opened its labour market to these member-states, for the simple reason that many that want to move elsewhere have already done so. So far, only a small number have moved to Britain. At first sight, Britain’s nervous breakdown over EU immigration is therefore puzzling: why is it a bigger issue in Britain than in Spain, which is suffering from mass unemployment? The British public’s hostility to immigration has been on