Can Truss reset relations with the EU? by Charles Grant
Britain’s new prime minister has the chance to rebuild bridges to the European Union. But it is unclear whether she will seize the opportunity. The arguments in favour of resetting Britain’s relations with the EU scarcely need stating. The war in Ukraine makes it important for the Western allies to stand together and co-operate. The Brexit deal negotiated by Boris Johnson’s government has led to significant problems for British businesses, such as friction at borders. The perpetual arguments over the Northern Ireland Protocol have destabilised the region’s politics and poisoned the overall relationship between London and Brussels. And with the UK suffering economic turmoil after an ill-conceived minibudget, Liz Truss would surely want to avoid a trade war with the EU. If she aims for a reset, she will find the EU willing to respond. True, Truss did not make herself particularly popular as foreign secretary. In the words of one French official who was in meetings with her, “she treated the diplomatic world like the Tory Party conference, always playing to the gallery”. But most EU governments are tired of the strained relationship with the British and would like to move on. Both Micheál Martin, the Irish Taoiseach, and Joe Biden, the US President, have urged Truss to seek compromises on the protocol. The death and funeral of Elizabeth II created real sympathy for the UK.
Several weeks into her government, it is unclear what line Truss will take with the EU. She has certainly been polite to other European leaders. But she won the leadership of her party by cultivating the European Research Group, a well-organised and vocal band of hard-line eurosceptic MPs. They will be annoyed if she compromises on the protocol, arguing that to do so would betray the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), the largest Protestant political party in Northern Ireland. The DUP is refusing to join the Northern Irish executive until the protocol is scrapped, seeing it – with the checks it imposes on trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland – as a threat to the unionists’ British identity. More generally, Truss may seek to energise her political base, and create a clear dividing line with the opposition Labour Party, by picking fights with the EU. The EU itself could make a reset difficult. Most EU governments, and the European Commission, are pretty hard-line on the protocol. As one French diplomat puts it: “We don’t think there is anything wrong with the protocol, and we think that the DUP’s hostility to it has been stirred up by the Conservatives.” EU officials like to point to opinion polls which show a clear majority of the Northern Irish in favour of the protocol.