Russia's assault on Ukraine and European security by Luigi Scazzieri
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will require NATO to greatly strengthen deterrence. Europeans will have to shoulder a larger share of the security burden, acting through both NATO and the EU. Putin’s decision to abandon any remnant of deniability and launch a full-scale attack on Ukraine is a watershed moment in European security. It also raises the spectre of the conflict expanding. To deter Russia from further aggression, NATO’s posture will have to shift. Instead of the small forces currently in eastern members, intended to act as a ‘tripwire’, it will need larger deployments capable of defending territory. European armies will have to provide most of those additional forces, and European defence spending will have to rise to ensure that militaries have the right training and equipment to face Russia. European leaders are aware of the scale of the challenge. Many countries have already announced budget increases. German defence policy has undergone a sea change, with Berlin pledging to meet NATO’s target of spending 2 per cent of GDP on defence and announcing a one-off €100 billion fund to help achieve that. Others, like Denmark and Poland, also announced they would raise defence spending, and more countries can be expected to follow in coming months. Spending announcements on their own will not deter Putin. Countries will have to fulfil their promises, and not delay or dilute them. Higher spending will take years to improve military capabilities, and many European militaries are
starting from a relatively low base in terms of equipment, readiness and interoperability. Much of the funding will go to plugging large gaps due to neglect – particularly in Germany’s case. Since the 2000’s, European forces have focused on fighting poorly equipped groups like the Taliban or the Islamic State. Now they will need to invest in potentially fighting a peer adversary. An additional challenge is that not all European countries will be equally willing or able to raise defence spending given the political pressures to invest in other priorities, and high debt levels in some cases like Italy. And for increased spending to be truly effective, European countries will need to integrate their military capabilities better, for example by forming joint units, and move towards more joint R&D and joint procurement. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has re-affirmed NATO’s importance, revitalising the alliance and strengthening its pre-eminent role as a provider of hard security. Tensions within the alliance, especially between Turkey on the one hand and Greece and France on the other, will not disappear but they are likely to be substantially dampened. The alliance may even gain additional members, with support for membership gaining ground in Sweden and Finland, which are both exposed to potential Russian destabilisation attempts or aggression.