Can the West stay united on Ukraine – and what will China do? by Charles Grant
The longer the war in Ukraine continues, the greater the risk that Western unity will fracture. Meanwhile the choices that China makes will determine the future shape of geopolitics. Although Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has caused untold suffering, it has forged a stronger sense of identity among the people of that country. It has also fueled inflationary pressures – driven by shortages of oil, gas, metals and cereals – and will stymie global growth. Geopolitically, most of the consequences have so far been benign, with the Western states displaying an impressive degree of unity. But the longer the war continues, the more tensions among the allies are likely to grow. First, the good news. In the US, although Republicans and Democrats remain contemptuous of each other, they are working together to put pressure on Russia. Across the Atlantic, there is harmony: the ill-feeling left by President Joe Biden’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan and the AUKUS (Australia-UK-US) defence pact has dissipated, while the principal leaders are keeping each other informed of their moves. Some of the worst rifts in Europe have diminished: London and Brussels remain far apart over how to interpret the Northern Ireland Protocol, but neither wants to provoke a confrontation in the middle of a security crisis. Similarly, the row between Warsaw and Brussels over the independence of Poland’s judiciary has quietened down, for now. As for Turkey’s
dire relations with the EU and the US, Turkish sympathies for Ukraine create the possibility of a modest rapprochement. The most surprising result of the invasion has been Germany’s Zeitenwende (historic shift) on defence: Berlin wants to boost spending massively, supply weapons to Ukraine and buy new equipment, including jets to carry American nuclear weapons. Chancellor Olaf Scholz appears to back President Emmanuel Macron’s plans for strengthening Europe’s defence capabilities. The EU’s Atlanticist members will ensure that European defence is NATO-compatible (and try to include the British). But will these positive developments endure? September 11th 2001 may offer a cautionary tale. Those terrorist attacks brought the major powers together. NATO invoked Article 5 for the first and only time in its history. President George W Bush, whose America-first unilateralism had worried the Europeans, veered towards multilateralism. Russia, and to a lesser degree China, gave firm and unambiguous support to the US and its subsequent efforts to lead an international force into Afghanistan. The EU states agreed on the European Arrest Warrant, a significant measure of integration that would make life harder for terrorists and other criminals.