Dreaming of life after Brexit by Sam Lowe
Brexit fatigue is beginning to take its toll. Much of the public just want Brexit to be over and done with, and for the government to tackle neglected domestic issues. So too do British politicians. But, if Westminster finally approves an exit deal (which at the time of writing is far from certain), the UK will quickly discover that leaving the EU is just the beginning of a process that will drag on for years. When one negotiation finishes, so another will begin; and hammering out the details of the future relationship promises to be an even tougher challenge than withdrawal. The UK still needs to settle upon the nature of its future relationship with the EU. The political declaration on the future relationship, agreed by the EU and UK alongside the withdrawal agreement, indicates that Britain will leave the single market, but unlike the withdrawal agreement, the declaration is an aspirational text that is non-binding and subject to change. This leaves open the possibility of a deep economic partnership with the EU, akin to Norway’s, or a looser agreement similar to the free trade agreement the EU has with Canada. But the ‘Irish trilemma’ looms large as a consequence of Theresa May’s red lines, insisting that the UK must leave the customs union and single market while avoiding a so-called hard border in Ireland. As the CER’s John Springford explained in his March 2018 insight ‘Theresa May’s Irish trilemma’, the UK can only have two of these three options: an exit from the single market and customs union;
no hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland; and a ‘whole UK’ Brexit. If the UK wishes to prevent a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, and to pursue a Canada-style trading relationship with the EU, the trade deal can only apply to Great Britain; Northern Ireland would require supplementary provisions up until the moment (which might never come) that the UK and EU agree a technical solution that supplants the need for a physical border and associated checks. In practice this would mean EU controls on goods entering Northern Ireland from Great Britain, if not the other way around (it is in the UK’s gift to choose whether to apply these or not). The failure to accept these fundamental tradeoffs has driven much of the political discord on Brexit, and will continue to do so. While a deep relationship would make an all-UK approach to the post-Brexit settlement possible