PESCO: Paper tiger, paper tanks? by Sophia Besch
PESCO, or permanent structured co-operation, is a political framework that aims to help EU countries develop military capabilities together and improve their ability to deploy them. In November 2017, 23 member-states signalled their intention to participate in PESCO – the framework will be formally launched at the EU’s Foreign Affairs Council in December. But PESCO will become another European defence paper tiger if governments fail to make use of it to boost investment in much needed capabilities. Conflicting visions in Germany and France shaped PESCO: Berlin emphasised the political dimension of PESCO as an integrationist project and wanted a large number of participants; Paris wanted high entry criteria – 2 per cent of GDP spent on defence, 20 per cent of defence spending in purchases of major equipment and research – that would allow only the top European military powers to join. The compromise that was found emphasises process: a large number of participants agreed to hit the ambitious French targets – eventually. That result partly reflects a fear among some memberstates that EU cohesion could suffer if an avantgarde group of countries moves forward and leaves others behind. The future commitments could still be meaningful if PESCO made it possible for underperforming countries to be kicked out of the club. But a qualified majority is necessary to suspend a PESCO member; thus, accountability will be difficult to achieve. The new framework should not be dismissed completely, however. PESCO can give countries incentives to jointly develop capabilities on a
project-based level – all capabilities developed through PESCO remain under national control – and to improve the ability of Europeans to deploy in military missions. What will PESCO offer for joint capability development? Political considerations will undoubtedly influence which projects are chosen. But the focus should be on new projects that fill Europe’s most urgent capability gaps – otherwise PESCO runs the risk of simply subsidising national industries. For example, the number of European tanks has dropped by almost 70 per cent to just 5,000 over the last 17 years; most modern tanks are based in Western Europe, rather than in Central and Eastern European states that face a threat to their territory; and all European tank fleets are either outdated already or will face obsolescence by 2030. At the same time, while the American military has one main type of tank system, the EU has 17. Jointly developing a European tank should be one PESCO priority. Through PESCO the EU should also invest in innovative technology. Member-states could