Ten predictions for the Brexit talks by Charles Grant
In the run-up to a crucial meeting of the European Council on December 14th, EU and British negotiators are close to a deal on the UK’s separation from the EU. If they can agree on money, citizens’ rights and the Irish border, talks on future relations – and transitional arrangements – could start early next year. Although the current focus is on the separation, the next phase of the talks could prove much harder and more acrimonious. EU negotiators think the British government is deluded about the kind of future relationship it can achieve. Here are ten predictions: 1) The Irish border will prove the most contentious part of the separation agreement. Ireland is threatening to veto talks on future relations unless the UK promises there will be no controls on trade at the border. But Theresa May could not make such a promise unless Northern Ireland stayed in the EU’s customs union and aligned with many of its regulations. To the unionists who want close ties with Britain, that would look like a step towards a united Ireland. One possible fudge in December would be for the UK to accept unspecified ‘regulatory convergence’ between north and south. But that would merely postpone the difficult question of what that meant. In any case, the unionist DUP, which is propping up May’s government, has ruled out such a compromise. Ireland’s recent
political instability may make the issue harder to resolve. Yet if the EU and the UK have sorted out the rest of the separation agreement, Dublin will face pressure from other capitals to soften. As for the long term, unless the UK suddenly changes course and decides to stay in the customs union, some border controls are unavoidable. 2) There will be a deal on the financial settlement. The UK will agree to pay the EU around €50 billion or slightly more. Both sides will do their best to avoid talking of precise numbers. But the UK will undertake to meet payments under specific headings: the last two years of the EU’s seven-year budget cycle, other outstanding spending commitments, additional promises to pay for structural funds, contingent liabilities (such as loans to Ukraine) and pension liabilities. 3) There will be a deal on citizens’ rights. May will accept that the withdrawal treaty, enshrining the rights of EU citizens, has greater legal force than any subsequent UK legislation. And she will