How Brexit is changing the EU by Charles Grant
After the British voted to leave the EU, Marine Le Pen crowed that it was “by far the most important historic event known by our continent since the fall of the Berlin Wall”. She was right. Brexit is a momentous event in the history of Europe and from now on the dominant narrative will be one of disintegration not integration. That does not mean that the EU will fall apart, or even that another country will leave, which is highly unlikely in the foreseeable future. But the centrist politicians who run nearly every EU member-state are now on the defensive against the populists who oppose them and the EU. This will greatly weaken the ‘federalists’ who wish to press for further integration. The European Commission, led by President Jean-Claude Juncker, generally seeks to respond to crises by pressing member-states to accept ‘European’ solutions that involve extra powers for EU institutions. This is not necessarily cynical – the Commission genuinely believes that many problems require ‘more Europe’. And sometimes it is right. But the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, has warned repeatedly this summer that more centralisation would turn citizens against the EU. “Obsessed with the idea of instant and total integration, we failed to notice that ordinary people, the citizens of Europe, do not share our Euro-enthusiasm,” he said. Similarly, Wolfgang Schäuble, the German finance minister, has said that “this is not the time for visions; if the
Commission doesn’t work with us we ourselves will take things in hand.” Some Social Democrats in France and Germany echo the Commission’s rhetoric. Since the referendum, Jean-Marc Ayrault and Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the foreign ministers of France and Germany, have called for more integrated policies on borders, defence, intelligence, migration, asylum and corporate tax. Sigmar Gabriel, Germany’s economy minister, and Martin Schulz, the president of the European Parliament (also Social Democrats) have demanded a new treaty and a ‘European government’. But Tusk’s pragmatism – backed by Chancellor Angela Merkel and most EU leaders – will prevail over Juncker’s federalism. In recent years Paris and Berlin have discussed a new EU treaty, focused on a more integrated eurozone. But such talk has petered out, because the eurozone, though beset with difficulties, faces no immediate risk of dissolution. France and Germany cannot agree on how to fix the euro’s problems (should there be a transfer union or stricter rules to police budget deficits and structural reform?). And even if they could agree, neither the French nor German