PORTUGAL’S PRESIDENCY By Katinka Barysch On July 1st, Portugal took over the EU’s rotating presidency from Germany. Angela Merkel’s six months at the helm will be a tough act to follow. Merkel had continued her winning streak by making EU leaders sign up to joint energy targets in March, by persuading George Bush – at least in principle – to use the UN to negotiate a post-Kyoto climate regime, and by getting her 26 EU colleagues to agree the outlines of a treaty to replace the failed EU constitution. Headline-grabbing though they were, some of these agreements are vague, which leaves Portugal with the unenviable task of translating them into an EU treaty that can be ratified and policies that can be implemented (energy). The inter-governmental conference (IGC) on the new treaty will take up most of Lisbon’s attention. But the Portuguese will have to attend to other unfinished business too: from postal liberalisation to enlarging Schengen. And, as EU presidencies usually do, Lisbon has added its own pet projects to the EU agenda. Not surprisingly, these include stronger ties with Brazil and African countries, immigration, and maritime policy in the Mediterranean. Portugal is planning to swivel the spotlight from the east (Germany had concentrated on Russia, neighbourhood policy and Central Asia) to the south. However, Lisbon will not be able to take its eyes off the EU’s eastern neighbourhood altogether. José Sócrates, Portugal’s prime minister, says he wants to try a softer approach to Russia in the hope of unblocking EU-Russia negotiations on a new treaty. But given that Portugal has few links with Russia, it is unlikely to succeed where Germany failed. Russia is also still threatening to block the Ahtisaari plan for Kosovo independence in the . While diplomatic efforts at the UN will be important, Portugal will have to work hard to keep the EU countries united behind the Ahtisaari plan, and to prepare the EU mission that is supposed to guard stability in Kosovo after independence.
★ The new treaty Merkel has left S ó c r a t e s an easy legacy, in the shape of a “clear” mandate for the IGC – or so he thought until the Polish government threatened to re-open the vexed question of the voting system. During the June summit, the Kaczynski twins, Poland’s president and prime minister, secured a ‘gentlemen’s agreement’ to allow a small group of member-states – smaller than the usual blocking minority – to hold up EU decisions. But there is no consensus over the length of time such blockages should last. The Kaczynskis say they negotiated a two-year delay; EU officials disagree, saying this would be unworkable in practice. A Europe-wide groan of frustration did not deter the Poles from calling for new negotiations. While the Kaczy nskis’ request may well be accommodated, it could encourage other governments to try and get a better deal too. However, the risk that the IGC will end in a re-run of the ill-tempered June summit, rather than the technical and legal exercise envisaged by the Portuguese, is slim. Most EU leaders are fed up talking about institutions and would welcome an early deal. S ó c r a t e s hopes to get the treaty signed at the next major EU summit in October. But if Poland, or another country, insisted on re-opening the package, negotiations could drag on right up to the end of the Portuguese presidency in December. Although Merkel will get most of the credit for forging the political deal on the treaty, its speedy adoption would make the Portuguese shine too. They hope that the document could be called the Lisbon treaty, rather than retaining its current working title, namely ‘Reform Treaty’ (the fact that the October summit takes place in Lisbon, while the December one goes to Brussels may have added a sense of urgency to Portugal’s IGC plans).
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