How Britain could leave the EU by Charles Grant
Britain’s departure from the EU grows ever more likely. David Cameron, the prime minister, wants Britain to stay in. But he seems set on a path that could lead to an exit. British withdrawal requires two conditions to be satisfied. First, the government of the day must call a referendum on whether to leave the EU. Second, a majority of voters must want to quit. The first condition seems likely to be met, and the second is, for now, fulfilled. Cameron will probably go into the 2015 general election with a commitment to renegotiate the terms of British membership and then hold a referendum on the outcome. The British people would vote on whether to stay in the EU with the ‘better deal’ that he had negotiated, or leave. The problem with this strategy is that it assumes a significantly better deal is available. Many senior Conservatives believe that the other EU countries will offer treaty opt-outs because they wish to keep Britain in the club and because they will need a British signature on the new EU treaty that is likely to emerge around 2016. The Conservatives will certainly try to pull out of EU labour market rules. They will draw on the government’s review of EU competences, currently underway, for ideas on other areas to withdraw from. (The government is already activating a treaty article that allows it to opt out of many laws on police and judicial co-operation.)
However, though the other EU governments want Britain in the Union they will not grant it treaty opt-outs. They worry that if Britain escaped labour market rules, which they view as intrinsic to the single market, it would gain an unfair competitive advantage. And if Britain could opt out of EU policies it disliked, others would demand the same privilege: the French might exempt their car industry from state aid rules, or the Poles spurn directives that force their coalcentred economy to cut carbon emissions. And if Britain blocked a new EU treaty the others would go ahead with another sort of treaty minus the UK, just like they did last December. Cameron could probably come home with a piece of paper promising a ‘better deal for Britain’ – perhaps an agreement on reforming the working time directive, and safeguards for the City of London and the single market. But Tory eurosceptics would see that the ‘better deal’ had failed to repatriate powers. They would