Wg^Z[^c\ cdiZ THE CER GUIDE TO THE
FRENCH PRESIDENCY
France’s EU presidency was always going to be ambitious, with wideranging plans for climate change, immigration and defence. Now, however, France will have to focus on resolving the legal and institutional mess created by the Irish No to the EU’s Lisbon treaty. President Nicolas Sarkozy will struggle to save the Lisbon treaty while showing that the Union can act in areas that Europeans care about, such as the environment and immigration at the same time. However, the French presidency also faces some significant obstacles to success. In recent months Sarkozy has had some serious rifts with Berlin and the European Commission, while his motto of a more “protective Europe” will go down badly in the UK, Scandinavia, and some of the new memberstates.
After the Irish No The Irish No to the Lisbon treaty on June 12th has fundamentally altered the dynamics of the French presidency. France will no longer have to expend time and effort preparing for the implementation of the treaty. The haggling about whom to put into the new posts created by the treaty (the Council president and the revamped high representative for foreign policy) is over for now. But Paris will have to take the lead in trying to find a way out of the constitutional limbo. President Sarkozy will travel to Ireland early in his presidency, on July 21st, to assess the prospects for a second referendum. He will have to strike a delicate balance between trying to save the treaty and restoring the EU’s legitimacy. The EU has spent seven years negotiating the Lisbon treaty, and its failed predecessor, the constitutional treaty. Nineteen countries have already ratified it, so the EU will be loath to abandon the process. The preferred option of the French government, like most other EU governments, is for the Irish to hold another referendum, after the rest of the EU has offered them reassurances on issues such as sovereignty, neutrality and taxation. However, the Irish will need more time and concessions than most European politicians are yet prepared to acknowledge, such as a return to the principle of each EU country having one commissioner in Brussels. Moreover, the EU cannot push Ireland too hard to reconsider, lest it be accused of disregarding the say of Irish voters. So the discussions that France leads on the future of the treaty will mainly be out of the public gaze. But the French are likely to give thinly veiled warnings to Ireland that its standing, and perhaps even its full membership, may be called into question unless it can ratify the treaty. EU leaders have asked the Irish government to come up with proposals on how to proceed by October, when EU leaders meet for their informal autumn summit. The French are keen to chart a way out of the impasse before they hand over the EU presidency to the Czech Republic at the end of the year. Given that Prague has halted its own ratification process of the Lisbon treaty, it is currently seen as part of the problem rather than the solution. France will only be in a good position to push the Irish government for a new referendum if a 261 situation emerges by the December summit. Sarkozy’s biggest job will therefore be to keep ratification going in the other EU countries. However, pressure on Ireland would also mount if some countries stop the ratification process (a possibility not only in the Czech Republic but also in Poland and even Austria) and refuse to restart unless the Irish vote again.
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