BRIEFING NOTE
The timetable for enlargement by Heather Grabbe ★ Ireland has finally agreed to ratify the Treaty of Nice, following a ‘yes’ vote in the referendum. This result opens the way for the EU to conclude accession negotiations in December 2002. ★ The first accessions are likely to take place in 2004, but they may not happen on January 1st. ★ The final deal on the financing of enlargement is likely to be confined to the remainder of this budgetary period, until the end of 2006.
The Irish referendum result has removed a major uncertainty in the enlargement process. The Nice treaty agreed in 2000 contains the key institutional principles for decision-making in a Union of up to 27 member-states: the number of votes that each country has in the Council of Ministers, and how many representatives each country can send to the European Parliament. Without those provisions, the EU’s institutions could only accommodate 20 member-states, not all ten of the candidates that will be ready to join in 2004. Even more importantly, opponents of enlargement could have used a ‘no’ to Nice as an excuse to delay beyond 2004. The Danish presidency of the EU aims to bring the eastward enlargement full-circle this year, by concluding negotiations in the city where the membership conditions were first set at the Copenhagen European Council in 1993. In June, the EU’s leaders met in Seville and reaffirmed their commitment to the following timetable for enlargement: conclusion of negotiations with ten of the twelve candidates for membership by the end of 2002, provided those countries are ready, with a view to their accession in 2004. Currently, the Commission considers only Bulgaria and Romania to be insufficiently prepared. The Treaty of Accession should be signed in spring 2003, so that it can be ratified that year. The EU’s stated objective is that the ten countries should participate in the elections for the European Parliament that will take place in June 2004 “as full members” – but this is an aspiration rather than a promise. This timetable is achievable, but there are several points at which it could slip. The principal issues outstanding in negotiations are the budget and the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) that accounts for nearly half of the EU’s spending. There are still many technical issues to be sorted out in the negotiations as well, and both Hungary and the Czech Republic are seeking