CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN REFORM
briefing note
COULD A HARD CORE RUN THE ENLARGED EU? By Heather Grabbe and Ulrike Guérot The leaders of France, Germany and the UK meet in Berlin on February 18th to try to forge a joint agenda for the EU. The summit is partly aimed at a rapprochement between the ‘Big Three’ after Iraq. They are still patching up relations after last year’s rift, in which British Prime Minister Tony Blair supported the US-led war whereas his German and French counterparts opposed it. But the trilateral summit is also part of an experiment in new forms of leadership for the enlarged EU. The Big Three fear that a Union with 25 member-states and an increasingly complex decision-making process could be heading for gridlock. They are therefore exploring ways of exercising joint leadership through joint projects. If Britain, France and Germany can forge an agreement on policies or appointments, such as that of the next Commission president, the other EU members are likely to follow. Tony Blair has additional motivations to promote trilateralism. He wants to demonstrate Britain’s engagement in the EU, to show that just because the UK is outside the euro and allied with the United States does not mean that he stands on the sidelines. An alliance with Europe’s other big powers also signals to his domestic audience that the UK is part of the leadership group. The British public might then be less inclined to see the Union as being run by Germany and France and against UK interests. Like his French and German counterparts, Blair is in political trouble at home, and progress at EU level could boost the standing of all three men. German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder and French President Jacques Chirac have also found good reason to co-operate more with Blair. Traditionally, the motor for EU initiatives has been the bilateral relationship between France and Germany. But the recent revival of this partnership has also shown its limits. France and Germany know that the EU cannot make progress with its common foreign and security policy unless the British join in. The UK’s strong military capabilities are essential to any European defence initiative. And only Blair can reassure the US that European moves in security policy or defence do not threaten the Atlantic alliance. The idea of forming a Franco-German ‘hard core’ to lead the EU still appeals to those two countries. But in practice they have found it fiendishly difficult to identify and agree on possible areas of co-operation to fill the core with substance. Moreover, the idea of hard core has met with scepticism – and often suspicion – from other members of the Union. The small member-states resent the big countries hammering out deals without consulting them. The new members from Central and Eastern Europe are particularly afraid of the formation of any ‘club within the club’ that might exclude them from parts of European integration. The smalls are also angry that Germany and France have openly flouted agreed EU rules, such as the fiscal limits of the Stability and Growth Pact and some single market rules. They fear that the EU could be changing from a Community based on law to one where ‘might makes right’.