CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN REFORM
briefing note
RUSSIA, THE EU AND UKRAINE:
NOT A TUG OF WAR
By Katinka Barysch and Charles Grant
What has been the real choice in Ukraine’s presidential election? To judge not only from the Russian media, but also from some western newspapers, Ukraine is the subject of a tug of war between Russia and the West. It is true that the West and Russia have different views on what is best for Ukraine. But this does not mean that Ukraine has become the battleground of a new geopolitical great game between East and West. Many Ukrainians, and most European governments, see the crisis as a struggle between a corrupt, semi-authoritarian regime and a movement that is committed to democratic reform and economic opening. So far, the EU has performed well in this crisis, speaking with a single voice. But it now faces serious problems in its already strained relationship with Russia. The EU needs to stand up for its principles of democracy and non-interference in other countries’ affairs, while doing its best to limit the damage to that important relationship. In particular, it needs to persuade the Russians that they should work with the EU to sort out the problems of their common neighbourhood. As far as most Europeans and Americans are concerned, Russian conduct during and after Ukraine’s presidential elections has displayed an alarming tendency to revert to Cold War-style thinking. Many Russians assume that the EU’s position is the mirror image of Kremlin’s: an attempt to control Ukraine by installing ‘our’ man in Kiev. This assumption has been fuelled by Kremlin propaganda and reinforced by some western commentators, who have taken up the idea that a new Cold War is tearing Ukraine apart. It is true that some right-wing Republicans, notably those active in Washington think-tanks, play up to this caricature. These Americans argue that anything that weakens Russia must be good for the US, but they are neither the majority nor those in charge of US policy on Russia. The recent and rapid deterioration of EU-Russia relations might appear to give some plausibility to the tug-of-war thesis. At their last summit in November, the two sides openly disagreed over Ukraine. They even failed to strike a deal on deeper co-operation in areas where they should find common cause, such as trade, energy or the fight against terrorism. Many Russian leaders now view the EU as a hostile power that is expanding into Russia’s traditional sphere of influence. The EU, meanwhile, has become increasingly concerned about Russia’s eroding democratic standards and weak regard for human rights. Events in Ukraine have reinforced each side’s worst fears of the other. While the EU admonished Ukraine’s rulers for skewing the electoral playing field in favour of Victor Yanukovich, Putin supported him as best he could. While the EU has refused to acknowledge the results of the second round run-off, Putin rushed to congratulate Yanukovich for his supposed success.
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