Wg^Z[^c\ cdiZ WILL THE IRISH GUILLOTINE LISBON? By Hugo Brady On June 12th Ireland will hold the EU’s only referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. The fate of the treaty – a wide-ranging set of reforms to EU decision-making – hangs on the vote: all 27 member-states must ratify for it to enter into force. If the Irish say Yes, Ireland will become the 16th EU country to pass the treaty, virtually assuring its uneventful passage through the parliaments of the other 11 member-states. Polls show that the Yes side maintains a fragile lead, but there is a real risk that the traditionally pro-European Irish could vote No, thereby blocking reforms that the EU’s governments say are vital. More importantly, a No would land a critical blow to the morale of Europe’s political establishment and force the EU into a further bout of negotiations about institutions and rules. The likely outcome of the referendum is a close result that will be determined by the level of voter turn-out.
A race to the finish On May 6th, EU governments heaved a collective sigh of relief when Bertie Ahern, Ireland’s long-serving taoiseach, stepped down as leader of the country’s coalition government. Though still popular, Ahern’s authority to campaign for a Yes vote in the upcoming referendum was fatally undermined by his questioning before a corruption tribunal. Brian Cowen, his successor as taoiseach and leader of the governing Fianna Fáil party, quickly launched a campaign to ratify the treaty, hoping that his honeymoon period as the new leader and a jump in approval ratings for his party would ensure success. Cowen, a popular and tough politician, believes passionately that the treaty is vital to Ireland’s national interests. Small countries can wield undue influence in the EU system if they are perceived, as Ireland is, to be an enthusiastic member. Cowen has engaged his party’s considerable canvassing machinery in a doorto-door campaign to mobilise voters. Although late in starting – the ‘No’ side had been virtually unopposed for months – the campaign has shored up support for the treaty. According to the last independent polls, conducted in mid-May, 41 per cent of voters now support the treaty, with 33 per cent opposing it and 26 per cent remaining undecided.1 Ominously, however, the No side seems to be scooping up more undecided voters than the Yes campaign. Previous campaigns have 1 Pat Leahy, ‘Both sides gain and race been decided by a late shift in voter opinion in the days before the poll. Both will go to the wire’, The Sunday sides will hold back their most potent arguments for the close of the debate, th Business Post, May 25 2008, hoping to capture the imagination of undecided voters and swing the vote in www.sbpost.ie. their favour. Cowen’s efforts are helped by the fact that Ireland’s businesses, media and political mainstream are almost uniformly pro-European. The main opposition parties are also running Yes campaigns. Both the second largest party, Fine Gael, and the Labour Party have urged their voters to “resist the natural temptation” to use the poll to punish the government at a time of slowing economic growth, falling house prices and rising inflation. The Green Party, which disliked previous EU treaties, is now in government and has said it will not oppose this one. With all main business organisations supporting the treaty, as well as a group representing civil society, the Irish Alliance for Europe, the treaty’s passage would seem likely, if not assured. Nevertheless, the Yes side is still fighting an uphill battle. Most voters know little about the EU and are instinctively suspicious about voting for an international treaty that few understand and many feel has not been explained clearly enough. In addition, a significant amount of pro-European voters who would
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