Wg^Z[^c\ cdiZ WILL SPAIN REMAIN A SMALL COUNTRY? By Charles Grant There is a strange paradox about Spain’s role in the EU. Although one of the most pro-EU member-states, it is the least influential of the six larger ones (the others being Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Poland). Twas not always thus. From the time it joined the EU in 1986 until the early years of the current decade, Spain was part of the EU’s leadership group. Felipe Gonzalez, the prime minister who took Spain into the EU, invented the concept of European citizenship, which means that people from one EU country who live in another can vote in its local and European elections; the EU’s cohesion funds, which have been generous to Spain; and the ‘Barcelona process’, through which the EU assists the countries on the other side of the Mediterranean. Gonzalez managed the feat of forging close relationships with Helmut Kohl and François Mitterrand, who then dominated the EU, while at the same time getting on well with Margaret Thatcher (as well as Ronald Reagan and George Bush senior). The right-wing José Maria Aznar, who replaced Gonzalez in 1996, was less committed to European integration. But he was still a figure to be reckoned with: he helped to launch the ‘Lisbon agenda’ of economic reform in 2000, and then blocked agreement on the EU’s constitutional treaty in a bid to maintain a bigger voting weight for Spain than its population merited. He forged strong alliances with Tony Blair, Silvio Berlusconi and George W Bush, culminating in their joint support for the invasion of Iraq. The Iraq war was extremely unpopular in Spain, which helped the socialists to return to power in 2004. During the five years of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero’s premiership, Spanish influence in European councils has dwindled. Italy and Poland, as well as some smaller countries such as the Netherlands and Sweden, often have more say in EU policy-making. Nor has Zapatero been particularly visible on global economic or diplomatic questions. He did invent the ‘alliance of civilisations’, designed to build bridges between the Muslim world and the West, and he persuaded the UN to sponsor the alliance’s conferences and programmes on education, youth, the media and immigration. Zapatero had another success when he insisted that Spain – though not a member of the G20 – be allowed to attend the recent meetings of the G20 heads of government in Washington and London. However, he did not contribute a great deal to the G20 discussions. On many of the key policy issues confronting the EU today – such as Russia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, financial regulation, eurozone governance and climate change – the Spanish voice is muted. On a recent visit to Madrid I could not find a Spanish diplomat who disagreed with the statement that Spain punches below its weight in the EU. Spain’s modesty extends beyond policy-making. Spain supplies few senior figures to international organisations. When Javier Solana, currently the EU’s foreign policy chief, retires, no top international job will be held by a Spaniard. I see two reasons for Spain’s diminished weight. One is the personality of the prime minister. He does not speak any foreign language, and in the 18 years that he spent in parliament before becoming prime minister, seldom travelled. He has made no serious effort to build alliances with other leaders or countries. Zapatero’s interests are principally domestic. And he has been in many respects a successful politician, maintaining the fairly liberal economic policy of previous governments, pursuing a modernising social agenda and wrongfooting his political opponents. Zapatero won a second term of office in the March 2008 general election. However, the recent rise in unemployment – by some measures over 17 per cent, twice the EU average – has highlighted the weakness of the government’s economic record. Zapatero has held back from undertaking the painful reforms that would tackle the structural weaknesses of the Spanish economy – particularly its exceptionally low productivity.
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