Can Turkey combine EU accession and regional leadership? By Katinka Barysch ★ The looming deadlock in Turkey’s EU accession bid stands in contrast with its increasingly active role in the Middle East, the Caucasus and Central Asia. Over the last few years, Turkey has built stronger links with its neighbours and sought to become a regional peace-maker and mediator. ★ Turkish leaders insist that their country’s growing regional clout makes it a more valuable addition to the EU. But some observers worry that Ankara is turning away from the West and is instead pursuing a ‘neo-Ottoman’ or ‘Islamist’ foreign policy. ★ Turkey’s EU aspirations and its re-emergence as a regional power are not necessarily incompatible. But Turkey needs to maintain its strong westward orientation and continue its internal modernisation in order to become a strong and respected regional player. ★ The EU, meanwhile, needs to keep Turkey’s membership talks moving forward. It should find a way of co-operating with Ankara in foreign policy that goes beyond the narrow confines of the accession process. The EU’s new High Representative should establish a regular foreign policy dialogue with the Turkish foreign minister. A decade ago, Turkey was largely isolated in its region and its relations with neighbours such as Armenia, Greece and Syria were fraught. Today, Turkey is one of the region’s most successful and influential countries. It is building stronger ties with the countries around its borders – Iraq, Iran, Syria, Russia, even Armenia – under what the country’s foreign minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, describes as a ‘zero problems with the neighbours’ policy. Ankara has also taken the diplomatic initiative to manage or mediate long-standing conflicts in the region. Trade and business links between Turkey and its neighbours have been flourishing. Turkey says it wants, and is able, to spread stability and prosperity across its borders. While Turkey’s relations with the countries of the Middle East, Caucasus and Central Asia are improving, its relationship with the European Union is heading for deadlock. Although the EU and Turkey avoided a crisis over Cyprus in December 2009, the accession negotiations have slowed to a snail’s pace. The EU has suspended some parts of the talks, while several EU governments are blocking other bits.
Centre for European Reform 14 Great College Street London SW1P 3RX UK
Although Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel are no longer openly calling for a ‘privileged partnership’, two-thirds of French and 1 European Commission, Germans are against any ‘Standard eurobarometer 71’, further enlargement of the September 2009. EU.1 Most Turks still want to join the EU. But a big majority thinks their country will never be let in, even if it fulfils the accession criteria. The government in Ankara claims it remains committed to accession, but its enthusiasm for reforms has waned. Turkey’s traditionally strong ties to the West seem to be slackening. Ankara’s relations with the US have improved since Barack Obama replaced George W Bush in the White House – but not as much as many people had expected. Turkish soldiers are serving alongside NATO allies in Afghanistan but Turkey’s role in the alliance remains awkward. Turkey’s previously solid bond with Israel came under strain in 2009. Recent statements from Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s usually pragmatic prime minister, have puzzled western allies: Erdogan called Mahmoud Ahmedinejad “a friend”, dismissed worries about
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